China has emerged as Russia’s leading source of sanctioned dual-use goods, with around 90% of high-priority products supplied by China or re-exported through Chinese entities in 2023. Beijing has so far refrained from providing direct lethal weapons to Russia but continues to support its war effort with items like microelectronics, drones, and machine parts. While Western countries have limited options to prevent China from selling its own products, coordinated action could help drive up costs for Russia and China, minimizing this critical lifeline.
China’s role as Moscow’s lifeline for economic output and military production has drastically increased since the West imposed trade restrictions on Russia. Chinese companies provide a range of goods that sustain Russia’s defense industry and military capabilities, from spare parts to microelectronics. While a large portion of these supplies are sourced from China, Russia also relies on other intermediaries to evade sanctions, such as the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. Despite China’s significant support, Russia could still sustain its war efforts independently.
China has maintained a careful stance by avoiding direct lethal assistance to Russia, allowing it to support Moscow under the guise of plausible deniability. However, Beijing’s role in providing dual-use goods to Russia raises concerns about its indirect support for Russia’s war machine. While China advocates for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, its significant role in facilitating Russia’s war effort cannot be ignored. The Chinese government likely plays a critical role in these transactions, despite outward claims of normal cooperation with Russia.
Efforts by the West to curb China’s supply of dual-use goods to Russia have included sanctions against Chinese companies involved in aiding Russia’s war efforts. While these actions have had some impact, Chinese transactions with Russia remain significant, highlighting the challenges in enforcing sanctions effectively. The West can improve efforts to restrict re-exports of Western goods through regulations like the Foreign Direct Product Rule. However, targeting shell companies and maintaining consistent enforcement poses challenges in effectively limiting supplies to Russia.
Despite Western sanctions aimed at cutting off Russia’s vital supply lanes, China’s role in circumventing these restrictions remains prominent. Western allies have made efforts to curb Chinese supplies to Russia, but challenges in enforcement and evasion schemes limit the impact of these measures. While China’s support for Russia remains a critical lifeline, increasing the cost of supplies through sanctions could potentially hinder Russia’s war efforts. By making Russian supplies more expensive, the West could limit the sustainability of Russia’s military capabilities.
