NOAA has upgraded a geomagnetic solar storm watch from a level 3 to a level 4, labeling it as “severe”. This is a rare event, with the last severe watch being issued in 2005. The sun has been crackling with sunspot energy, leading to two massive sunspots merging and releasing X-class and M-class solar flares that can impact Earth.
These solar flares can trigger geomagnetic storms that create brilliant auroras in the northern skies but can also cause GPS issues, satellite communication problems, and high-frequency radio blackouts. The combined sunspot region responsible for these flares is magnetically complex and poses an increased solar flare risk, according to the Space Weather Prediction Center.
The interaction of sunspot activity and geomagnetic storms is explained by Professor Peter Becker as flares signaling radiation from the sun and coronal mass ejections as the explosive force. The geomagnetic storm from these events could potentially lead to high-frequency radio communication blackouts, power system voltage irregularities, impacts to satellite orientation, and GPS range errors.
The current solar cycle is peaking, making solar storms more frequent. NOAA has observed only three severe geomagnetic storms since the beginning of the current solar cycle in December 2019. The largest solar flares, X-class, can release energy equivalent to 1 billion atomic bombs, while M-class flares can cause minor radiation storms and harm astronauts in space.
Historical evidence of larger solar storms in the past, such as the Carrington Event of 1859, show the potential impact of such events on Earth. NOAA forecasts the current solar cycle to peak in 2024 or early 2025, with solar activity likely to remain active for the next several months or even years. This increased sunspot activity means that such geomagnetic storms may become more common in the near future.
