Over the past 23 years, there has been a significant demographic shift in North Carolina, with the nonwhite share of the population increasing to 38.5 percent and the percentage of college graduates rising to 33.9 percent among key Democratic constituencies. However, political scientists like Sarah Treul argue that predictions of a purple North Carolina are premature. The growth around areas like the Research Triangle tends to lean more Republican, and as the national Democratic Party has shifted to progressive politics, formerly Democratic counties have become reliably Republican. To win statewide office, Treul believes the Democratic Party needs to reconnect with these voters who were once part of their base.
Political scientist Candis Watts Smith describes North Carolina as a demographically purple state with a Republican Party that has shifted to the right faster than the Democrats have shifted to the left. Despite Republican candidates like Robinson taking extreme culture-war-focused policy stances that may drive Democrats to turn out, recent data suggests that the influx of new voters in North Carolina has not necessarily favored the Democrats. While there has been an increase in unaffiliated voters, there has also been growth in Republican voters and a decrease in Democratic voters.
Jason Matthew Roberts, another political scientist, points out that North Carolina is unique in that it still sees ticket-splitting, a practice that has declined in most of the United States. The state has a history of electing a Democratic governor while voting for a Republican presidential candidate. Roberts believes that nominees like Robinson and Morrow may not necessarily help President Biden, as it is possible to see different outcomes in statewide and national races. Despite the growth of the Research Triangle and Charlotte areas, which are more Democratic-leaning due to their high levels of education, the rural areas that used to support Democrats have shifted towards the Republican Party, leading to a balance in recent statewide races.
Anderson Clayton, the new chair of the state Democratic Party, ran on a platform of reaching out to more rural voters in North Carolina. This fall will be a test to see if this strategy has been effective and if the growth trend in more urban areas has been able to overcome the rural trend that has favored Republicans in recent years. The political landscape in North Carolina is complex, with countervailing trends at work that make it difficult to predict election outcomes. As the state continues to grow and evolve, it will be interesting to see how the Democratic Party adapts and strategizes to win statewide office in the future.
