Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko recently announced a surprise nuclear readiness inspection, a move that is believed to be aimed at supporting Russia’s efforts to pressure the West against providing additional assistance to Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested that this sudden check on the military’s readiness to deploy tactical nuclear weapons is part of the Kremlin’s campaign to influence Western decision-making by coercing them to refrain from supporting Ukraine further.
Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has strengthened ties with Russia since Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In January, Lukashenko announced that Russian-controlled nuclear weapons had arrived in Belarus, with several dozen tactical nuclear weapons deployed in his country. The upcoming drills will involve these weapons, and the ISW believes that this move is part of Russia’s effort to pressure the West into refraining from providing military assistance to Ukraine, especially given the recent statements from Western leaders regarding potential deployments in Ukraine.
Putin’s recent order for tactical nuclear weapons drills in response to perceived threats from the West, such as statements from French President Emmanuel Macron and U.K. Foreign Minister David Cameron, further underscores the tense situation in the region. Belarus’ Defense Minister, Viktor Khrenin, stated that the drills will include planning, preparation, and the use of strikes with tactical nuclear weapons, involving aircraft and missile divisions. Despite these developments, the ISW believes that neither Russia nor Belarus are seeking nuclear escalation, and the use of nuclear weapons remains unlikely.
While Belarus has not directly joined the conflict in Ukraine, Russian troops have conducted exercises on Belarusian territory and used it as a launching point for the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenko has emphasized his country’s doctrine on the deterrent use of nuclear weapons and expressed a desire to avoid entering the war against Ukraine. The ISW highlights that the timing of Lukashenko’s inspection aligns with Putin’s efforts to coerce the West, indicating coordination between the two leaders.
Overall, the unexpected nuclear readiness inspection by Lukashenko in Belarus is seen as a strategic move to support Russia’s stance in the Ukraine conflict and influence Western decision-making. Despite the tensions and military posturing, it is believed that both Russia and Belarus are unlikely to escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. The situation remains fluid, with the potential for further provocations and responses that could impact the conflict in Ukraine and relations between Russia, Belarus, and the West. Newsweek remains committed to covering these developments and challenging conventional wisdom to find common ground amidst international tensions.
