With just six months until Election Day 2024, a new national poll from USA Today and Suffolk University shows that the race between President Biden and former President Trump is tied. Biden and Trump each have 37% support among registered voters, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 8%, and 5% backing other independent or third party candidates. Political Research Center director David Paleologos says the outcome is a coin flip, indicating a very close contest between the two candidates.
A day before the USA Today/Suffolk University poll, an ABC News/Ipsos poll also showed a tight race between Biden and Trump. Among adults, Trump holds a 46%-44% advantage, but Biden is ahead among registered voters (46%-45%) and likely voters (49%-45%). In a five-way contest with other candidates included, Trump has a slight edge among all adults, is tied with Biden among registered voters, and Biden leads among likely voters. These polls suggest that the race could come down to the wire, with nearly a quarter of voters saying they might change their minds before the election.
While national polls are closely watched, the battle for the White House ultimately comes down to the states and their electoral votes. Polling in key swing states, such as those conducted by Fox News, also show close contests between Biden and Trump. The importance of battleground state polling cannot be overstated, as these states will ultimately decide the outcome of the election. As the campaign season progresses, candidates will need to focus on winning over voters in these crucial states to secure victory in 2024.
The upcoming party conventions in July and August will be crucial moments for the candidates to make their case to undecided voters and solidify support among their respective bases. With just 17 weeks of active campaigning left before Election Day, time is running out for candidates to make their mark and sway voters in their favor. Early voting in some states further shorten the window for effective campaigning, making each week leading up to the election critical for the candidates to make gains in the polls.
As the race tightens and the candidates gear up for the final stretch, the 2024 election is shaping up to be a closely contested battle between President Biden and former President Trump. Other independent and third party candidates also play a role in potentially influencing the outcome, adding another layer of complexity to the race. With the outcome of the election hanging in the balance, both campaigns will need to focus on key swing states and mobilizing their supporters to secure victory in November. The next few months will be crucial as the candidates make their final push to win over undecided voters and solidify support among their base.
