CDU leader Friedrich Merz appeared relaxed in the days leading up to the party congress in Berlin, with poor poll numbers and criticism from the traffic light coalition being solely responsible for the tension. The Union consistently polls at 30% or slightly higher, far ahead of all other parties. No one in the Union currently dares to openly challenge and challenge the CDU chairman. That was different a few months ago. Things are going well for Merz. Almost. The unexpected problem that has arisen is the study “Youth in Germany 2024.” For this, the voting behavior of young people in the country was also surveyed. The result is a blow to the traffic light parties, but also alarming for the Union parties. For two reasons: first, the CDU and CSU are only in second place in the popularity of young voters, unlike in surveys of the entire population. The real disappointment, however, is: The AfD ranks first.
According to analysts, a clear shift to the right is evident from surveys of 14- to 29-year-olds. According to the study, 22% of respondents who have a party preference and intend to vote in the federal election would vote for the AfD if the election were held this Sunday. This is a significant increase compared to previous surveys. The CDU is also gaining popularity among young people, with 20% saying they would vote for them. This is four points higher than in 2022. However, the traffic light parties are losing support: the Greens are losing significantly, the FDP slightly, and the SPD marginally. The predominant feeling among young people is pessimism, unlike anything seen before in the Federal Republic. The young generation is concerned about the country’s prosperity, resulting in widespread political dissatisfaction.
The chairman of the Young Union (JU), Johannes Winkel, stated that the content of the study did not surprise him, as the trend was already evident in previous state elections. The main messages are: young people do not automatically vote left, the trend is over. And: The AfD is alarmingly gaining ground. The CDU now plans to react to this on their party congress. Initiatives include implementing policies for young people, addressing issues such as the debt brake, honesty on retirement, a U-turn on immigration, and strengthening the economy. The CDU aims to link the retirement age to life expectancy, to ensure that fewer young people have to support more retirees.
At the party congress, the Young Union plans to introduce relevant proposals. The CDU will anchor the debt brake in the new basic program under the heading “Promises for the Next Generation.” They also aim to limit the government’s tax contribution to the pension system to a maximum of one quarter of the federal budget. Ideas to strengthen the economy include tax breaks for businesses and a digitalization offensive. The Young Union suggests gradually reinstating the conscription and introducing universal conscription. According to them, for a democracy to offer its youth a perspective, it must be capable of defense. President Winkel expects to receive some support at the party congress. Merz reacted visibly surprised and concerned to the study results.
The Union parties can interpret the results of the youth study as follows: CDU and CSU are at least in second place in the popularity of young people. This sounds good, considering that the two parties were not considered political favorites among young people in the past. The Union parties and their voters are generally older. In the 2021 federal election, only 11% of 18- to 29-year-olds voted for CDU or CSU. Only the AfD and the Left Party performed worse, with 8% each. However, enthusiasm among young people for the Greens and FDP has waned since the federal election, as shown by the recent state elections in Bavaria and Hesse. In contrast, the AfD is gaining ground, even among first-time voters.
To understand why teenagers are suddenly interested in the AfD, one can observe the party’s campaign kick-off in Donaueschingen in the Black Forest. At the event, young people were concerned about the war in Ukraine and education, immigration, and integration issues. Many were also worried about inflation, declining prosperity, rising rents, and the growing threat of pension poverty. President Winkel believes that the CDU and Young Union must stay true to their core beliefs to combat the AfD’s growth. This means not becoming a Green 2.0 or a clone of Fridays for Future but maintaining their authenticity to gain acceptance among the young generation.
