Pedro Sánchez has sent a subtle warning to Carles Puigdemont during his reflective period: if he gets tired, everyone will be left behind, and the amnesty may end up being in vain. The upcoming Catalan elections may not have as much impact on the legislature as some believe. Spain could potentially have budgets passed with the support of Junts in the medium term. This will not only be due to the president’s warning, but also the political evolution of Puigdemont. Puigdemont has shifted his rhetoric from being intimidating towards the Spanish state to motivational speeches, portraying himself as a coach and spiritual leader for the independence movement. These elections symbolize the poor management during the procés years, but also aim to reignite hope among independence supporters, despite the lingering frustration from the events of October 1st. Embracing a defeatist attitude would be counterproductive, as the dream of an independent state fades on the horizon.
It is unlikely that Junts will choose to become a marginal party in Congress by blocking agreements with Sanchez if they fail to govern the Generalitat after May 12th. The post-procés Junts needs to develop a solid program that goes beyond last-minute tactics to establish a lasting political presence. They must become a relevant party, which could be achieved through agreements with the government on budgets or other issues. Puigdemont has committed to the path of progress, making it challenging to backtrack now. Pushing the boundaries in parliamentary votes has helped Junts present itself as the true voice of independence, distancing themselves from ERC. Puigdemont’s ideological definition and focus on issues like tax cuts and effort and merit in his speeches signal a shift towards becoming a practical and business-friendly party.
The impact of Sánchez’s warning on the Catalan elections remains to be seen. There may be a similar effect to July 23, 2023, when pragmatic independentists supported PSC to prevent the rise of the far-right and potential chaos in Catalonia. Sánchez’s influence could boost the campaign of Salvador Illa, altering the political landscape. The socialist platform now emphasizes leaving behind the past procés and defending democracy against the far-right, appealing to voters from other parties. Puigdemont, however, is in no rush and will remain in partnership with the government until the amnesty is approved. Junts’ long-term strategy includes defeating Pere Aragonès rather than immediate governance without a clear path towards independence.
Sánchez’s warning is not just about governance but also symbolic, showing that Puigdemont is not the only one capable of turning the elections into a plebiscite on his leadership. Threats to leave and rallying support have become tactics for both Puigdemont and Sánchez. The messianic undertones transcend ideologies, highlighting the complexity of the political landscape in Catalonia. Adapting to the changing environment and finding common ground will be essential for both Junts and the government moving forward. As the elections approach, the balance of power and strategic alliances will determine the future direction of Catalan politics.
