A recent poll conducted by Monmouth University found that only 5% of US adults said they would “definitely” vote for independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with another 13% saying they would “probably” vote for him. This support is down compared to December when 21% expressed a likelihood of voting for him. Among those who have an unfavorable opinion of both Biden and Trump, only 15% said they would definitely vote for Kennedy, suggesting his support is not particularly strong even among voters who dislike the main candidates.
Despite the lukewarm support for Kennedy, the poll indicates that he could potentially play a spoiler role in the election, with Trump leading Biden by a single point in a head-to-head matchup that includes Kennedy voters. Additionally, the poll shows that less than four in 10 Americans are enthusiastic about a rematch between Biden and Trump, although this enthusiasm has increased compared to December. The poll results suggest that the election could be a close contest, making Kennedy’s role as a potential spoiler more significant.
In response to Kennedy’s candidacy, Trump criticized him as a “Democrat Plant” and a “Radical Left Liberal.” At the national level, Trump holds a 1.6 percentage point lead in a five-way matchup that includes Biden, Kennedy, Cornel West, and Jill Stein. Kennedy is currently averaging 10.6% support in national aggregate polling and will need to reach 15% support in select polls to qualify for the debate stage in the fall.
The Monmouth poll also found that a higher percentage of registered voters had a favorable view of Trump (43%) compared to Biden (41%), with fewer holding an unfavorable view of Trump (57%) than Biden (58%). In contrast, Kennedy is more of an unknown quantity, with 35% holding a favorable view of him and 40% holding an unfavorable view. Additionally, 26% said they hadn’t heard of him or had no opinion. The poll sampled 746 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Overall, the poll results indicate that while there is not strong support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as an independent presidential candidate, he could potentially play a spoiler role in a close election. With Trump currently leading Biden in a head-to-head matchup that includes Kennedy voters, the possibility of Kennedy influencing the outcome of the election is a significant factor to consider. Additionally, the poll shows that there is limited enthusiasm for a rematch between Biden and Trump, highlighting the potential for Kennedy to impact the election dynamics.
