China has long been criticized for being the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, with the U.S. following closely behind. The argument has been made that it is pointless for the U.S. to reduce its emissions when China’s emissions continue to grow, especially as the country plans to build more coal-fired power plants. However, China has argued that its emissions are a result of its industrial growth and desire to catch up to the U.S. in terms of development. In the past, there was criticism from the West for China’s delay in committing to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, as opposed to the 2050 target set by other countries as part of the Paris Accords.
Despite past criticisms and concerns, China is now making significant strides in its energy transition. According to analysis by DNV, China’s electrical power generation is expected to shift towards renewables, with the country’s power supply from renewables set to increase from 30% to 88% by 2050. In 2022, China installed about 40% of the global solar and wind capacity separately, with this trend expected to continue through 2050. This shift is also reflected in China’s primary energy supply, with solar and wind set to increase significantly while fossil fuels decrease.
China’s energy plans have undergone a significant transformation, with renewable electricity set to increase from just above 51% in 2030 to 78% by 2050. On the other hand, fossil-burning power plants are expected to decrease from 46% to 24% during the same timeframe. While coal and oil usage are predicted to plummet, natural gas consumption is expected to remain relatively stable. This shift in China’s energy mix has implications for the U.S., particularly in terms of offsetting the expected decline in crude oil due to the growth of electric vehicles.
DNV predicts that China’s energy supply will peak by 2030 and fall by 20% by 2050, a surprising development attributed to decarbonization efforts, improvements in energy efficiency, and a decrease in population by 100 million. Despite rising prosperity in Chinese households, the country is expected to become one of the most electrified regions by 2050. China’s goal of energy independence remains a key priority, with significant imports of oil and gas still projected by 2050. Additionally, nuclear power is expected to double by 2050, although its contribution to the electricity mix will remain around 5%.
One of the biggest surprises is the projection that carbon emissions in China are set to peak by 2026, with a 30% reduction by 2040. In 2023, China accounted for a third of global emissions, but by 2050, this is expected to decrease by 70%, bringing it down to a fifth of global emissions. The reduction of emissions is primarily attributed to displacing coal in power plants and other primary energy end-uses. While China is on track to meet its goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, further decarbonization efforts in manufacturing may be necessary.
Overall, China’s energy transition is progressing rapidly, with a significant shift towards renewable energy sources and a reduction in carbon emissions. The country’s commitment to decarbonization and energy efficiency is evident in its ambitious targets for the future. As China continues to lead in the installation of solar and wind capacity globally, its transformation of the energy sector has implications not only for its own future but also for the global energy landscape.
