Two months into the halfway point of the Andalusian legislature, Juan Manuel Moreno’s PP maintains the absolute majority it obtained in the regional elections in June 2022. According to a survey by the Centro de Estudios Andaluces (Centra) Foundation, affiliated with the Presidency Council, the PP is projected to gain three more percentage points than in the elections and secure between 58-61 seats (currently holding 58). On the other hand, the PSOE led by Juan Espadas is expected to lose 2.9 points, resulting in 24-27 seats compared to the current 30. Vox, meanwhile, sees a slight increase and is estimated to secure between 14-17 seats (currently at 14). For Andalucía, the regional party Sumar is projected to increase by nine percentage points, potentially raising their seat count from five to 7-8. Adelante Andalucía, the party founded by Teresa Rodríguez, may either lose their two seats or only secure one.
There appears to be no erosion of support for the government led by Juan Manuel Moreno, and it may even see an increase in support as predicted by a previous survey conducted in December by the Andalusian CIS. The PP is projected to secure 46.1% of the votes, with a 24.9 point lead over the PSOE in Andalucía, which is expected to receive 21.2% of the votes. The combined seats of the PP and Vox, ranging from 72 to 78, make it unlikely for a change in political cycle in Andalucía, where the left-wing parties (PSOE, Sumar, Adelante) would only gather 36 seats at best, far from the 55 needed for a majority in the Parliament. The survey, conducted between March 22 and April 9, consisted of 3,632 interviews with a margin of error of ±1.63%.
According to the surveyed individuals, the main issues affecting Andalucía are unemployment (32.5%), health care cuts (9.6%), dissatisfaction with politics, distrust, and corruption (7.1%), and drought (5.3%). It is clear that issues closer to home have a greater impact on the population. By subscribing, individuals can stay up to date with the latest developments and not miss out on any important information.
Overall, the survey results indicate that the PP, under Juan Manuel Moreno’s leadership, continues to maintain its strong position in Andalucía, with a predicted increase in support. The PSOE, on the other hand, is expected to experience a slight decline in voter approval. With Vox also showing a slight gain in projected seats, the possibility of a significant shift in political dynamics in Andalucía appears unlikely. The issues of unemployment, health care cuts, political dissatisfaction, and corruption are of primary concern for the population, highlighting the importance of addressing these key challenges to better serve the people of Andalucía.
