American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman, known for his accurate predictions of presidential elections, has made a final verdict on the 2024 race. In a video posted by the New York Times, Lichtman forecasted that Vice President Kamala Harris would defeat former President Donald Trump on November 5th and keep the White House in Democratic hands. This prediction is made using his “Keys to the White House,” a set of 13 categories used to assess the prospects of each major party candidate. Lichtman claims Harris has the advantage in eight keys, while Trump has three, emphasizing that the outcome ultimately depends on voter turnout.
Lichtman has a track record of correctly predicting most presidential elections since 1984 using his keys. However, his streak ended in 2000 when Al Gore, whom he predicted would win, lost the Electoral College to George W. Bush despite winning the popular vote. In 2016, Lichtman predicted Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton, even though Trump lost the popular vote. Some critics have disputed Lichtman’s claim to fame, arguing that his predictions depend on how one interprets the “Keys” with respect to the popular vote versus the Electoral College.
The 13 categories within Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” include factors like whether the sitting president’s party gained seats in the House during midterms, whether there is a third-party contestant, and the state of the economy. Lichtman explains that foreign policy considerations could impact these keys, particularly given the Biden administration’s involvement in issues like the Gaza conflict. He emphasized that even if some of the foreign policy keys were to change, the overall balance would likely not be enough for Trump to regain the White House.
Despite some criticism of his predictions, Lichtman, a registered Democrat, has maintained his confidence in his forecast for the 2024 election. He cautioned against the Democratic Party considering replacing Biden as the top of the ticket following a difficult debate with Trump in June 27. Lichtman highlighted the power of the incumbency factor in his keys and warned that removing Biden could be a mistake for the party. He has also criticized poll aggregator Nate Silver for lacking a fundamental basis in history and elections, emphasizing the strengths of his predictive method.
Recent polling data shows Harris with a slight lead over Trump nationally, with forecasts giving Trump a higher chance of victory in the Electoral College. The two candidates are set to debate in Philadelphia on September 10 as part of the election cycle. Despite the volatility of the 2024 campaign, Lichtman remains steadfast in his prediction, stating that his keys are a reliable constant in political forecasting. He believes that Harris will emerge as the winner on November 5th and keep the White House under Democratic control.
