The term “volatility,” borrowed from chemistry, traditionally refers to the ability of a solid or liquid substance to turn into a gas. However, it is now commonly used to describe two forms of uncertainty: in elections and in markets. It seems as though politics and economics, once relatively stable, are becoming more “gaseous.” The term “electoral volatility” gained popularity in France starting in the early 1980s, describing the decrease in party loyalty, a phenomenon observed in the United States since the 1970s. Political scientist Gérard Grunberg was one of the first to show this reality in a pioneering study on voting patterns between 1981 and 1984, a finding confirmed by subsequent surveys.
Nonna Mayer, a researcher at CNRS, summarises these classic works by noting that in the past, class and religion could predict voting behaviour. Over the past forty years, however, there has been a fundamental movement towards increasingly unpredictable voters. This unpredictability now encompasses a wide variety of voters, taking on three main forms: prior indecision before voting, leading to changing voting choices during the election campaign; intermittent voting or abstention between elections; and shifts in partisan preferences from one election to the next. The notion of “electoral uncertainty” has evolved significantly, with more voters crossing traditional party lines. The 2017 election in France, with Emmanuel Macron bridging the gap between the center and the far right, is a prime example of this trend.
The concept of voters as simply consumers looking to maximize the utility of their vote on the political market is one proposed by American political scientist Anthony Downs. In his book “An Economic Theory of Democracy,” published in 1957, Downs laid the theoretical groundwork for what he referred to as “electoral uncertainty”. Downs suggests that voters have become more strategic in their decision-making process, treating their vote as a commodity to be exchanged in the political marketplace. This view underscores a growing trend of political volatility and unpredictability in contemporary democracies.
The latest European elections have further highlighted the impact of this volatility, with parties across the political spectrum experiencing shifts in support. The rise of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and the resurgence of the Socialist Party demonstrate how electoral volatility can shape political outcomes. This trend challenges traditional notions of party loyalty and stable political identities, reflecting a broader shift towards a more fluid and unpredictable electoral landscape. As voters become increasingly diverse and individualised in their choices, political parties must adapt their strategies to navigate this new era of uncertainty and volatility in democratic politics.
Overall, the concept of volatility has evolved from its origins in chemistry to describe the changing nature of political and economic uncertainties. The notion of electoral volatility has become a key element in understanding modern democracies, where traditional party loyalties are weakening, and voters are more likely to switch allegiances. This trend towards unpredictability challenges established political norms and requires a rethinking of traditional electoral strategies. As voters become more like consumers in the political marketplace, parties must adapt to this new reality by addressing the evolving needs and preferences of an electorate that is increasingly volatile and uncertain.
