With the upcoming U.S. elections on November 5th, Ukraine is closely monitoring the outcome as it could have a significant impact on their fight against Russia’s invasion. The two candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, have contrasting views on supporting Ukraine with weaponry. Harris has promised to stand by Kyiv until “Ukraine prevails in this war,” while Trump has blamed Ukrainian President Zelensky for the war and vowed to settle it quickly if elected. The election outcome could determine whether Ukraine receives the necessary support to continue fighting or is forced into unfavorable peace terms.
The best-case scenario for Ukraine would be a full sweep by Harris and the Democratic party, with control of the White House and both chambers of Congress. This would ensure reliable assistance to Ukraine in a timely manner, both financially and militarily. Harris’s approach to Ukraine is expected to be similar to President Biden’s, focusing on diplomatic and military support for the country. The choice of her cabinet members, such as the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, will shape her policies towards Russian aggression in Ukraine. Potential picks for these positions are individuals who are likely to continue supporting Ukraine.
The cautious approach towards Ukraine from the current White House is attributed to the leadership of President Biden and Jake Sullivan. If Harris wins the election, her policy towards Ukraine may be influenced by her chosen replacements for these positions, such as Phil Gordon as the National Security Advisor. A Harris-Gordon team could bring about a change in policy towards Ukraine, potentially being more supportive compared to the current administration. However, Harris has been evasive on the topic of Ukraine’s NATO membership, suggesting that it will be addressed if and when necessary.
There are concerns that a potential Trump presidency could result in unfavorable terms for Ukraine, potentially ending the war with significant concessions to Russia. Trump’s friendly relationship with Putin and his willingness to communicate with the Kremlin raise fears that a quick resolution to the war could undermine Ukraine’s interests. The possibility of Trump reducing or eliminating assistance to Ukraine could embolden Putin and lead to further aggression. The choice of Trump’s cabinet members, such as Robert O’Brien or Mike Pompeo, will play a crucial role in shaping U.S. policy towards Ukraine.
The support for Ukraine from the U.S. depends on Ukraine’s willingness to continue fighting against Russian aggression. Trump’s close relationship with Putin and his potential return to office raise concerns about the future of U.S. aid to Ukraine. Democratic control of the House is seen as critical for providing support to Ukraine, regardless of the outcome of the presidential election. The fear of a potential Trump administration withdrawing from NATO could have catastrophic consequences for global security, including the situation in Ukraine. Boris Johnson remains optimistic that Trump would continue supporting Ukraine based on past actions, despite concerns about his potential return to office.
The outcome of the U.S. elections will have a significant impact on Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression. The contrasting views of the candidates, Harris and Trump, on supporting Ukraine with weaponry will determine the level of aid Ukraine receives in its ongoing battle. The choice of cabinet members and advisors under a potential Harris or Trump administration will shape U.S. policies towards Ukraine and Russian aggression. The future of Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion and its aspirations for NATO membership depend on the election outcome and the stance of the incoming U.S. administration. Ukraine’s fate hangs in the balance as Americans head to the polls.
