According to the monthly survey conducted by the 40dB institute for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER, the distance between the right-wing and far-right parties and the left-wing parties has increased since the general elections. The right-wing and far-right parties now hold almost 48% of the estimated vote, while the left-wing parties hold 40.7%. The parties that supported Pedro Sánchez’s investiture, including Junts, ERC, PNV, BNG, EH Bildu, and Coalición Canaria, have a combined 4.7% in the intention to vote. The survey, conducted online with a sample of 2,000 interviews between May 10 and May 13, includes the impact of the Catalan elections.
The increase in advantage is due to the rise of the PP since the general elections, which has absorbed Ciudadanos and improved its position by 1.4 percentage points. There has been a slight decrease in support for the Socialists, who have lost nearly one percentage point since 2023, and a significant drop for Sumar, which has decreased by five percentage points since the elections. Vox has consolidated its position as the third force with 13.4% of the vote. Vox has seen the biggest increase, gaining two percentage points since the previous survey. Podemos, which split from the platform of Yolanda Díaz less than five months after the elections, has less than 3% support.
The transfer of votes between parties shows a greater loyalty among the right-wing block compared to the left. Vox retains 85.3% of its 2023 voters, while the PP retains 84.4%. In comparison, the Socialists retain only 76.2% of their voters, and Sumar retains 52.7%. There are favorable exchanges between the PP and Vox, with a percentage of voters switching between the two parties. The mobilization of voters is also higher on the right, with 71.4% of PP voters stating they would definitely vote in the upcoming elections.
The support for the PSOE is stronger among women than men, in contrast to Vox, which has a nearly seven percentage point difference in support between genders. Support for Abascal’s party decreases with age, while support for the PP increases among older age groups. Sumar fares better in certain age groups, surpassing 6% between the ages of 35-44 and 55-64. The PP leads among the upper and upper-middle class, while the PSOE leads among the middle and lower classes. Vox has a significant lead over Podemos among the lower middle and lower classes.
In terms of regional support, the PP has a stronghold in Andalucía, a former socialist stronghold, where the party leads by 3.4 percentage points over the PSOE. Vox also sees strong support in Andalucía, with over 15% of the intended vote. The PP also leads in Galicia, Madrid, and Castilla y León, but has lower support in other regions such as País Vasco and Cataluña. Sumar outperforms Podemos in various regions, but falls slightly behind in Galicia. The survey also shows changes in household economic situations, with an increase in households able to save money at the end of the month, and a decrease in those who struggle financially and need to take on debt.
