As the November election approaches, polls are showing a tight race between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden. Biden is losing support in key Democratic strongholds and crucial swing states that helped him win in 2020. Surveys in May from Siena College and RealClearPolitics show Biden losing ground in New York and California, compared to his 2020 margins. Trump is leading in seven swing states that Biden narrowly won in 2020, according to a Cook Political Report survey. Other polls from Bloomberg, Morning Consult, New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer, and CBS also show Trump leading Biden in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, and Florida.
A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll in May shows Trump with a slight lead nationally, but Biden edges ahead with undecided voters. Surveys from Economist/YouGov, Fox News, Reuters/Ipsos, and Morning Consult also show Trump and Biden in a virtual tie. The Israel-Hamas conflict is dividing Biden’s base, with some Democratic voters disapproving of his handling of the crisis. Furthermore, Biden is tied with Trump among Hispanic voters in battleground states, signaling a potential shift in support compared to the 2020 election.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy has the potential to influence the election, drawing votes away from both Trump and Biden. Kennedy’s support is strongest among younger voters and Hispanic voters in battleground states. However, it remains unclear how his presence on the ballot will ultimately impact the outcome of the election. Polls also indicate that Biden and the Democratic Party are losing support among key demographics like Black, Latino, and younger voters.
Biden and Trump are gearing up for a historic rematch in the upcoming election, with both candidates securing their party nominations earlier in the year compared to previous elections. Polls indicate low voter enthusiasm and relatively low favorability ratings for both candidates. Trump has focused his campaign on legal issues, accusing prosecutors and judges of working against him at Biden’s direction. Biden, on the other hand, has portrayed Trump as a threat to democracy, emphasizing his role in the Capitol riots and his stance on Supreme Court justices. Economic issues, immigration, abortion, and inflation are top concerns for voters, with the economy being a key issue where Trump is more trusted than Biden, according to surveys.
Since securing their nominations, Biden has seen some gains in polls as he steps up his campaign efforts. Trump’s lead over Biden has decreased slightly since January, with the two candidates now virtually tied in recent polls. As the race heats up, both candidates are vying for key swing states and demographic groups to secure victory in November. The upcoming election is shaping up to be a close and highly contested battle between Trump and Biden, with potential implications for the future direction of the country.
