As the 2024 presidential election approaches, American voters are facing a stable yet tumultuous race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Although the matchup has been anticipated, voter interest is at a 20-year low with majorities holding unfavorable views of both candidates. This may result in the election being decided by voters with negative opinions of both Biden and Trump, impacting voter participation in what is expected to be the most expensive presidential race in U.S. history. Biden is focusing on issues like abortion rights where he leads in polls and fundraising, while Trump is emphasizing negative views on Biden’s performance in office, particularly on issues like the economy and the border.
With six months until Election Day, most polls show a close and stable race between Biden and Trump. Trump holds a narrow lead within the margin of error, while their share of support has remained relatively consistent over the year. Biden has advantages among certain demographic groups, such as Black voters, women, and white voters with college degrees, while Trump leads among men, white voters, and those without college degrees. Third-party candidates could be a wild card that may impact the race, with around a quarter of voters indicating they could change their minds.
As voters weigh various concerns in deciding their votes, issues like the economy, inflation, Biden’s age, and abortion rights are prominent. Biden is seen as better at unifying the country and handling abortion, while Trump is favored in addressing inflation and the cost of living. Both candidates are focusing on key battleground states, with Trump slightly ahead in events in competitive states, while Biden has held more events in crucial states like North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Voter enthusiasm for the election is low compared to previous cycles, with fewer voters expressing high interest in the 2024 race.
Biden and the Democrats have a significant fundraising advantage over Trump and the Republicans leading up to the election. The Biden campaign has raised more, spent more, and has more cash on hand than the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee. However, the GOP is hoping to narrow this gap as Trump solidifies his position within the party and secures more fundraising commitments. Ad spending is already well underway in the presidential race, with projections estimating that over $10 billion will be spent on ads, making it the costliest election yet.
Adding a layer of unpredictability to the 2024 election are Trump’s ongoing legal troubles. Trump has already faced trial in New York for falsifying business records related to hush money payments, with more trials expected on serious charges like election interference and racketeering. These legal challenges could disrupt Trump’s campaign efforts and potentially shift the dynamics of the race in the last six months before election day. The outcome of these trials and their implications for the election remain uncertain as the campaign season unfolds.
