In the complex world of Spanish politics, fragmented into many pieces where almost all are essential to complete the puzzle, almost nothing is what it seems at first glance. The Government appears to be against the ropes, hit by a serious corruption case, the first that an Executive has suffered precisely after the sentence of the Gürtel case, which resulted in a motion of censure. Various judicial decisions have also been very detrimental to the Government, such as the recent one, with a harsh ruling criticizing President Pedro Sánchez for filing a lawsuit against Judge Juan Carlos Peinado for malfeasance, with some politically charged phrases. The opposition is also gaining momentum, with Alberto Núñez Feijóo speaking of the “judicial agony” that awaits Sánchez and stating that the president is at a point of no return.
Despite the narrative that the PP is working to “topple the Government” in a climate of dismissal, the top officials of Pedro Sánchez, with their three main negotiators at the helm -Félix Bolaños, María Jesús Montero, and Santos Cerdán- are operating in a completely different reality. All teams, at the highest political and technical level, have been dedicating many hours in discreet meetings over the past two weeks to shape a narrative opposite to the one the PP wants to portray of a Government in its final hours. They are negotiating the Budget with all groups, including Coalición Canaria, who did not participate in the investiture majority but seems willing to enter the Budget in exchange for concessions for the Canary Islands. Everyone is involved in this negotiation, including Sánchez, who discussed the matter with Fernando Clavijo, the Canarian president, when he visited La Moncloa last week.
The ongoing focus in La Moncloa is to have the technical discussion of all items well-prepared to close the political negotiation once the Junts and ERC congresses pass and start processing the Budget, with a decisive debate on full amendments. If all goes well, the Budget could be approved in the first quarter of 2025, probably in February, although uncertainties exist due to various variables, especially Junts. This would result in a new extension – which must automatically be done at the end of the year – but brief, and from a political point of view, it would be a resounding success convincing everyone, including the opposition, that the legislature will be ongoing for a long time.
Feijóo is also intensifying pressure on the PNV and Junts to break ties with the Government, but the responses this week have been strong in the opposite direction. The PNV has made it clear that they are negotiating and do not intend to overthrow Sánchez due to corruption as they did with Mariano Rajoy, as they appreciate Sánchez’s swift reaction compared to the PP. Junts, although less explicit, seem inclined to negotiate with Sánchez to extract maximum concessions and make use of their seven key seats. Negotiations with Junts are intense, and if the PSOE meets their demands, an agreement could be reached. Time is available, and there seems to be a political will. The stability path, essential for the Budget, and the deficit adjustment between regions and the central government need to be agreed upon first with Junts.
In addition to the daily management of any Government, the core team is focused on these crucial negotiations, each in their respective area: Cerdán with Junts, including trips to Switzerland; Bolaños with ERC and the other groups, overseeing legislative tasks, internal coalition negotiations, and leading the Council of Ministers; and María Jesús Montero handling all economic discussions with Junts and all other partners, crucial for passing the Budget, a complex puzzle. The PP still hopes that everything will fall apart, or that Sánchez’s concessions will weaken him. However, the Government is focusing on their strength in votes and the majority to continue governing, contrary to the opposition’s judicial strategy. The coming weeks will be decisive. If the Budget fails, Sánchez will face greater challenges, but there is still no alternative majority, and the president insists, publicly and privately, on continuing to govern. Yet, the Government is diligently working on an alternative plan.
