Russian forces are struggling in their efforts to advance in northern Ukraine, facing stronger Ukrainian resistance than anticipated. Despite Russian attempts to reinforce their assault groups with tanks, Ukrainian drones have been able to destroy them, leading to a halt in the Russian offensive in the north. The front line is now becoming more positional as troops engage in battles over individual buildings.
The situation in northern Ukraine depends on the Kremlin’s next move. They could either shift forces from the east to the north to make another push towards Kharkiv or bombard contested settlements in the Kharkiv Oblast until they are in ruins. Signs of impending Russian attacks were observed for weeks leading up to Victory Day in Russia when the incursion began.
Territorial units initially defended the border zone, a risky move as they were lightly armed and lacked the ability to halt the Russian advance. Ukrainian forces quickly reinforced the area with heavy brigades to prevent further losses in northern settlements. Ukrainian defenses have been significantly strengthened, leading to a cessation of the Russian advance in the north.
Russian forces have suffered significant losses in the recent fighting, with over 1,700 casualties in a single day, marking their greatest loss in their 27-month conflict with Ukraine. The Russians are now trying new tactics by attacking in smaller groups to reduce losses but slow the pace of advance. With their current forces, it may be difficult for the Russians to capture key Ukrainian cities in the north.
The Kremlin’s lack of additional troop deployment in the north may indicate that the operation was a diversion to draw Ukrainian forces away from the main eastern battlegrounds. However, it is unclear if the Ukrainians have weakened their defenses in the east to reinforce the north. The success of the diversion will depend on the number of additional units deployed to the north, which has so far been zero.
The northern campaign is ongoing, with heavy battles for destruction continuing between Russian and Ukrainian forces. The Russians may choose to simply bombard Vovchansk and Lyptsi rather than continue costly ground assaults. The outcome of the northern operation remains uncertain, as both sides continue to engage in heavy fighting.
