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The 2024 election marked the worst performance for a Democratic presidential candidate in the Empire State in over 30 years, with Kamala Harris underperforming Joe Biden by about 10 points.
The full extent of this dramatic failure cannot be explained by Harris’ dismal campaign performance alone.
Rather, the election highlighted a movement to the right in New York so decisive that Democratic leaders like her must rethink their position.
After all, this election followed a tight race for governor two years ago where the Democrat, Gov. Hochul, did worse than any other Dem since 2002.
Yet Hochul continues to operate as though the state is immune to a rightward slide, pushing policies that ignore the concerns of suburban and rural constituents in particular.
In 2022, Republican Lee Zeldin railed against congestion pricing and wildly unpopular bail reform, boosting his electoral performance.
Yet Hochul still backs both.
And she has incensed suburban communities through continuous provocation, weakening herself and her party and opening the door for Republicans to retake the Governor’s Mansion in 2026.
How has Hochul attacked the suburbs?
First, she stripped local governments of their power to regulate elections by passing legislation that moved local elections to even years.
Though a state court found that legislation unconstitutional, Democrats are appealing the decision.
Conveniently, the switch doesn’t affect deep blue New York City. Democrats want local elections to be hosted in even-numbered years so local Democrats can capitalize on races for Congress and president, while giving short shrift to local issues.
Rural and suburban voters are angry that the state is trying to downplay the role of local voices in their own local elections.
Next, in September, the State Education Department passed an emergency resolution requiring that local school boards submit a needs survey to their regional Boards of Cooperative Educational Services — with an eye toward greater regionalization and resource-sharing among school districts who utilize BOCES programs.
Voters in suburbs like Long Island believe this is just a ploy to limit local control over schools.
Hochul essentially supported it.
The governor also backed Proposition 1, which created new protected classes under the equal protection provision of the state Constitution.
Those protected classes conceivably could adversely affect local communities by effectively nullifying local zoning laws, law-enforcement agencies cooperation agreements, parents’ rights in schools and other local preferences.
Finally, in her most recent attack on suburban voters, Hochul is resurrecting congestion pricing, a toll that will cost motorists’ $9 every time they drive into Midtown Manhattan.
The MTA claims the scheme funds “the purchase of new electric buses, reduces traffic for better bus service and enables the MTA to perform necessary state-of-good repair work to the more-than-a-century old transit system to provide more reliable service.”
Great. But will it truly serve suburban communities?
Remember, communities in Rockland and Orange counties have no direct rail lines into Manhattan — instead they must use a combination of trains or buses to commute into New York City.
Consequently, residents of these suburban counties typically choose to drive into Manhattan instead of commuting by public transit. To date, the MTA has presented no plans to improve service for these communities with funds raised from congestion pricing, even though they’ll bear the brunt of this toll scheme.
Suburban and upstate voters have a long list of resentments over other Hochul positions as well — on crime, migrants and ICE, for example.
All of which has opened a door for New York’s Republicans to retake the governorship in 2026.
But the GOP must be pro-active to capitalize on Hochul’s errors.
First, they must nominate a moderate gubernatorial candidate with broad appeal in blue areas.
Second, they must actively mobilize angry voters to get behind that candidate and come out and vote.
With a strong candidate and mobilized electorate, Republicans can ride suburban coattails back into the Governor’s Mansion.
Ryan Silverstein is a JD candidate at Villanova University and a fellow with Villanova’s McCullen Center for Law, Religion and Public Policy.
