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Will Hill
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Twenty-eight NFL squads have been disqualified from the quest to hoist the coveted Lombardi Trophy, and now, the league’s version of the Final Four is here.Home teams went 5-1 in the wild-card round and then 3-1 last week in divisional matchups. The Cinderella Commanders are the only team this postseason to emerge victorious on the road.And last week was a great reminder of the importance of shopping for the best possible line when making your wagers. Let’s briefly examine why.The Chiefs were anywhere from 7.5- to 9.5-point favorites over the Texans last Saturday, depending on when and where you made your bet. And thanks to a late safety, they won by exactly nine points. The Eagles were 5.5-point favorites early last week over the Rams — a line that sat at 6 for the majority of the week — but got all the way up to 7 on Sunday. Thanks to some shaky kicking by Eagles’ kicker Jake Elliott and a late touchdown by the Rams, the final margin was six points. That was right in the middle of the opening and closing numbers. Even on Monday night, in the Notre Dame vs. Ohio State College Football Playoff title game, the line bounced back and forth between Buckeyes by 7.5 and 8.5 points. Until an improbable last-second field goal, Ohio State led by exactly eight points. So again, always shop around and make sure you’re getting the most favorable line possible. Doing so can be just as important as picking the right team. Can the Eagles slow down Jayden Daniels, Commanders in NFC Championship Game? Now, let’s take a look at the games that will decide who’s headed to the Super Bowl.Commanders @ Eagles (-6, 47)If you told a Cowboys fan back in August that there would be an all-NFC East, NFC title game, they would have been celebrating. Unfortunately for Dallas diehards, their squad didn’t make the matchup. Instead, it’s the upstart Commanders heading to Philly to take on the Eagles, as Washington looks to clinch one of the more improbable conference championships in NFL history.These teams met twice in the regular season, and each team won at home. But in the Commanders’ win, it is worth noting that Jalen Hurts left with a concussion after throwing just four passes — a game in which the Eagles at one point led 21-7. So I’m going with the Eagles here. As great of a rookie quarterback as Jayden Daniels has been, winning in Philly against a very good defense and a relentless rushing attack is asking too much. Commanders’ wide receiver Dyami Brown has emerged in the postseason, racking up nearly 200 yards in two games, and I think wagering on him to go over 43.5 receiving yards is a good bet. On the Eagles side, tight end Dallas Goedert going Over 3.5 catches is my favorite player prop, as Goedert could be the one to benefit from all the attention drawn by running back Saquon Barkley.Daniels is scary to pick against, but ultimately look for the Eagles to pull away and clinch their second conference title in three years.PICK: Dyami Brown Over 43.5 receiving yardsPICK: Dallas Goedert Over 3.5 receptions PICK: Eagles (-6) to win by more than 6 pointsPREDICTION: Eagles 34, Commanders 17Can Josh Allen eliminate Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs in AFC Championship Game? Bills @ Chiefs (-2, 47.5)For the fourth time in five years, the Chiefs and Bills will meet in January. The Bills are hoping the fourth time is the charm, as they have been eliminated by Patrick Mahomes & Co. in all but one season (2022) since 2020. On one hand, it feels like the Chiefs are as beatable as they’ve ever been since this incredible run started in 2018. It feels like the Bills are due to break through and finally win one of these matchups. On the other hand, do you really want to bet against Mahomes at home or anywhere for that matter — especially with such a low spread? I’m opting for the latter. I can stomach a loss backing Mahomes more than I can stomach a loss betting against him. The Bills were +24 in turnover margin this season and are +3 through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Is dominating the turnover battle to this extent really sustainable? I’ll take the Chiefs to once again find a way to win, but the bet I like most is Over 47.5. The three previous playoff matchups between these teams yielded combined points scored of 62, 78, and 51. Their regular-season meeting earlier this year? That game had 51 total points scored. PICK: Over 47.5 points scored by both teams combinedPICK: Chiefs (-2) to win by more than 2 pointsPREDICTION: Chiefs 27, Bills 24Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily! Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
