Republicans in New Mexico are optimistic about their chances of winning the state for the first time in 20 years, with conservative advocacy groups investing heavily in Spanish-language commercials in the final two weeks of the election. Jay McClesky, a political strategist for Republicans in the state, believes that President Trump could potentially change the outcome in New Mexico, a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate in two decades.
Groups such as Election Freedom and RFK Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again PAC have intensified their advertising efforts, with Election Freedom launching a $5 million ad campaign focusing on Spanish-language ads that highlight issues such as inflation, illegal immigration, and rising crime due to the policies of Kamala Harris and Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich. Polls indicate that President Trump is gaining support among Hispanic voters, leading among Hispanic men in multiple internal polls and narrowing the gap with Harris in New Mexico.
RFK Jr., who announced his support for Trump in August, has rallied some supporters to the right, contributing to making the state more competitive. With 47% of voters in New Mexico being Hispanic, the shift in polling reflects a broader transformation among voters in Southwestern border states. Latino voters, in particular, have shown increased support for Trump, with his approval rating among Hispanic voters jumping to 40% in 2021, compared to 19% in 2016.
Individual voters in border states like Arizona and Texas are also expressing support for Trump due to concerns about issues like illegal immigration and crime. For example, Catalina Miranda, an auto industry worker from Tucson, sees alignment between Republican and Mexican values, while Erika Moreno, an immigrant from Mexico and small business owner from El Paso, is frustrated with the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of illegal migration and its impact on her community. The deteriorating situation in border towns has led to voter anger and dissatisfaction with the current administration’s policies.
In 2024, New Mexico had the highest violent crime rate in the US, with concerns about crime playing a significant role in the upcoming election. McClesky notes that while the state has shifted towards blue in recent years, it is not necessarily liberal or progressive on all issues, especially when it comes to border security and crime. He suggests that as Harris is perceived as moving farther to the left, voters in New Mexico may reconsider their support, particularly in Albuquerque, where crime is a pressing concern for voters.
As the election approaches, the race in New Mexico is heating up, with Republicans hopeful of breaking the long Democratic streak in the state. Conservative advocacy groups and campaigns are working overtime to garner support among Hispanic voters, highlighting issues such as inflation, illegal immigration, and crime to sway undecided voters. If Trump can maintain his momentum among Latino voters and capitalize on dissatisfaction with the current administration’s policies, New Mexico may indeed prove to be a dark horse for Republicans in the 2022 election.
