Former President Donald Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 points in the 2024 presidential race, as indicated by data from the Polymarket prediction platform. This marks a substantial shift from earlier betting odds in September, where Harris was in the lead. The latest Polymarket figures show Trump with a 55% chance of winning the presidency in November, compared to Harris’ 45%. Additionally, Trump is leading in key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Arizona and Georgia, in particular, show the widest margins favoring Trump, representing crucial battlegrounds for the GOP candidate. Despite ongoing speculation about the upcoming election, financial analyst Jim Cramer predicts that Harris will win the 2024 race, sparking conversations on social media, particularly among cryptocurrency traders who often reference the ‘inverse Cramer effect’ which suggests the opposite of Cramer’s predictions tend to occur.
Trump’s rise in the polls coincides with his vocal support for the cryptocurrency industry, with his campaign recently launching World Liberty Financial, a decentralized finance (DeFi) project with its own native token. In September, Trump made headlines when he used Bitcoin to purchase burgers at a New York campaign event, possibly aiming to attract crypto voters. Reactions to Trump’s embrace of crypto have been mixed, with journalist Nic Carter warning that the project could pose risks to his campaign due to its DeFi structure potentially becoming a target for hackers. However, other experts like Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings, downplay the impact of the election on cryptocurrency prices, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 regardless of who wins the 2024 election.
A significant majority of users on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket have not been able to make profits, with only 12.7% of wallets out of 171,113 active on the platform recording positive returns. The majority of wallets, 87.3%, did not achieve profits, with only 21,730 wallets managing to earn gains. Among the profitable wallets, most saw modest earnings, with approximately 2,138 wallets earning more than $1,000 and the rest seeing gains of less than $100 or within the $100 to $1,000 range. This suggests that substantial returns are relatively rare on the platform. In a separate development, leading financial data and news service provider Bloomberg LP is set to integrate election odds data from Polymarket into its widely used Terminal, indicating the growing prominence of blockchain-based prediction markets like Polymarket in tracking real-time election odds and outcomes.
Overall, the 2024 presidential race shows a significant lead for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris according to data from the Polymarket prediction platform, with Trump holding a 10-point advantage. Trump’s increasing popularity in the polls, particularly in key swing states, comes amidst his vocal support for the cryptocurrency industry, including the launch of a DeFi project and using Bitcoin for campaign purchases. However, financial analyst Jim Cramer’s prediction that Harris will win the election has sparked social media discussions, especially among cryptocurrency traders who consider the ‘inverse Cramer effect.’ In the realm of decentralized prediction markets, the majority of users on Polymarket have not been able to make profits, with only a small percentage achieving positive returns. Bloomberg LP’s incorporation of election odds data from Polymarket into its Terminal highlights the growing importance of blockchain-based prediction markets in tracking real-time event outcomes.
