New polling data from conservative polling company Rasmussen Reports indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in the swing state of Michigan. The polls show a significant reversal since President Joe Biden endorsed Harris as his replacement in the race. While Trump has been dismissive of the polling, citing his 2016 victory despite trailing in polls, Harris has surged in popularity nationwide and in some swing states, where Biden was previously lagging behind. The Democratic ticket seems to be gaining momentum with Harris as the nominee instead of Biden.
The Rasmussen poll conducted in Michigan from August 13 to 17 shows Harris narrowly ahead of Trump by 1 point in a head-to-head matchup, with the support of 48 percent of Michiganders compared to 47 percent for Trump. With third-party candidates factored in, Harris’ lead expands to three points, garnering 47 percent of respondents compared to Trump’s 44 percent. Michigan is considered a pivotal swing state that could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the Electoral College. Trump narrowly won Michigan in 2016, but Biden reclaimed the state for Democrats in 2020 after decades of leaning Republican.
In a separate Rasmussen poll conducted in Pennsylvania during the same dates, Trump is shown to be 1 point ahead of Harris in a head-to-head matchup, but the Democrat takes a lead of 1 point when third-party candidates are included in the polling. The tight race in Pennsylvania reflects the state’s significance as it also flipped from supporting Trump in 2016 to backing Biden in 2020. Similarly to Michigan, Pennsylvania had not voted Republican since 1988 prior to Trump’s win. The polling averages in both Michigan and Pennsylvania show Harris leading Trump by a narrow margin, according to ABC News’ polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight.
The polling averages by FiveThirtyEight indicate that Harris leads Trump by an average of 2.6 percent in Michigan and 1.4 percent in Pennsylvania. In Michigan, Harris is averaging 45.9 percent against Trump’s 43.3 percent, while in Pennsylvania, she stands at 46.1 percent compared to Trump’s 44.7 percent. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, which provides an alternative analysis, also shows Harris holding a lead in both states, with 46 percent compared to Trump’s 43.1 percent in Michigan, and 46.2 percent compared to Trump’s 44.7 percent in Pennsylvania. These polling averages suggest that Harris is currently in a favorable position in both key swing states.
The upcoming presidential election is anticipated to be closely contested with Michigan and Pennsylvania being crucial battlegrounds, and current polling data indicating a narrow lead for Harris over Trump in both states. The endorsement of Harris by former President Biden seems to have given the Democratic nominee a boost in the polls, as she is now leading Trump in several national and swing state surveys. Despite Trump’s skepticism regarding the polling data, the trends suggest that Harris is gaining momentum as the Democratic nominee and could potentially secure victories in key swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. A close race is expected as the election approaches, and both campaigns will likely intensify their efforts to secure these crucial states.
