Recent polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight suggest that former President Donald Trump maintains a lead in Texas over Vice President Kamala Harris in this year’s presidential race. However, the race may be more competitive than initially anticipated, with Harris narrowing the gap in the Lone Star State. Surveys conducted among likely voters in June showed Trump with a significant lead over President Joe Biden, but recent polls suggest that Harris, who became the Democratic nominee following Biden’s withdrawal, may be gaining ground in Texas.
A series of surveys conducted over the past few months consistently show Trump ahead of the vice president in Texas, though the margin varies. The most recent poll by Quantus Polls and News, conducted among 1,000 registered voters, gives Trump an 8-point lead over Harris. Another poll by Public Policy Polling commissioned by Clean and Prosperous America showed Trump leading by 5 points, with an alternative model giving him a narrower 3-point lead. The University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs and Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs survey of 1,365 likely voters also showed Trump leading Harris by about five points.
The University of Houston poll revealed interesting voter movement, with Trump retaining 97 percent of his June vote and Harris retaining 96 percent of Biden’s June vote. Notably, 44 percent of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supporters shifted to Harris, compared to only 21 percent moving to Trump. Despite signs of a tightening race, other polls still show Trump with a more substantial lead, with an ActiVote survey putting him ahead by seven points. With Trump currently leading by 6.6 points in Texas according to Race to the White House’s polling average, both campaigns will closely watch for any signs of shifting political winds with several weeks to go before Election Day.
Texas, which has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1980, is seen as a crucial battleground state due to recent demographic changes and shifting political alignments. While Trump maintains a lead over Harris in recent polls, the competitive nature of the race indicates that Texas may be up for grabs this election cycle. Both campaigns will continue to focus their efforts on winning over voters in the state as they vie for its crucial 40 electoral votes in the upcoming presidential election. The dynamics of the race could still shift in the coming weeks as the candidates campaign and attempt to secure support from undecided voters.
