A recent New York Times poll revealed that Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 felony charges may have slightly improved President Joe Biden’s chances of winning the November election. The survey of nearly 2,000 voters found that post-conviction, Trump now leads Biden by just 1 percentage point, down 2 points from previous months. This shift in support indicates that some voters may be reconsidering their backing of the former president, which could be crucial in such a close election. Trump’s lead over Biden is only 1.6 percentage points according to an amalgamation of polls from FiveThirtyEight.
The findings from the Times’ poll align with a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll, which also showed troubling results for Trump. Over half of independents and the majority of double haters, those who dislike both Biden and Trump, believe that Trump should end his campaign in light of his conviction in the hush money trial. Despite these negative perceptions, Trump has been using his conviction as a rallying cry for his supporters to donate to his cause, characterizing himself as a “political prisoner.” However, he is unlikely to face any jail time for his convictions, despite facing additional charges in three other indictments.
Trump’s future remains uncertain as he faces the possibility of going to trial on multiple charges before the election. These looming legal battles could further impact his standing in the polls and potentially jeopardize his chances of winning a second term. The timing of such trials could play a critical role in shaping the political landscape leading up to the November election. With Biden and Trump virtually neck and neck in the polls, any shifts in voter sentiment could have significant ramifications on the outcome of the race.
It is clear from the recent polls that Trump’s conviction has had some negative effects on his campaign, with some voters reconsidering their support for him. The growing sentiment among independents and double haters that Trump should step down could pose a challenge for his reelection bid. Despite Trump’s attempts to turn his conviction into a rallying cry for his base, the broader electorate seems to be less receptive to his messaging. As the election looms closer, the impact of Trump’s legal troubles on his campaign strategy and voter support will become increasingly crucial.
While the Times’ poll offers valuable insights into the shifting attitudes towards Trump following his conviction, the ultimate impact on the election remains uncertain. With Trump still leading Biden by a narrow margin in the polls, it is evident that the race is far from over. The outcome of Trump’s legal battles and the timing of any potential trials could sway the electorate in either direction. As both candidates make their case to voters in the coming months, the importance of these polls and public opinion will only continue to grow in significance. It remains to be seen how Trump’s convictions will ultimately shape the narrative of the 2020 election and influence voter decisions in November.
