New polls released by the New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer suggest that former President Trump has the edge in five of the six key battleground states where he was narrowly edged by President Biden four years ago. Discontent over the economy and the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza, as well as a deterioration in support for Biden by younger, Black, and Hispanic voters, threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition. Trump leads Biden among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, with Biden narrowly on top in Wisconsin.
The 2024 rematch between Biden and Trump was closer among the narrower pool of likely voters, with Trump holding the advantage in five states. Surveys also included third-party and independent candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who was grabbing around 10% support across the six states. The polls indicated Kennedy was drawing roughly equally from both Biden and Trump. The surveys highlighted that voters are dissatisfied and itching for change, with nearly seven in 10 feeling that major changes are needed in political and economic systems.
The new surveys, conducted from April 28 to May 9, come as Trump makes history as the first current or former president to stand trial in a criminal case. Despite a massive ad blitz by the Biden campaign across key battleground states, the polls offer little indication that any developments have helped Biden or hurt Trump. Nearly three-quarters of voters said they believe Trump will bring major changes if he wins in November, compared to less than a quarter saying the same about Biden. The polls suggest Trump is making gains with voters who supported Biden four years ago.
The polls indicate that Trump and Biden are roughly tied among voters 18–29 years old and Hispanic voters. Former President Trump is also grabbing over 20% of Black voters’ support, the highest level of backing by Black voters for a GOP presidential nominee in generations. However, the economy continues to pull Biden down, with inflation remaining a major issue for voters. While jobs are soaring and the stock market is booming, over half of those surveyed believe the economy is still “poor.” Biden continues to hold ground with older voters and White voters who are less likely to demand fundamental changes to the system.
Abortion remains a potential problem for Trump, as nearly two-thirds of voters surveyed say that abortion should always or mostly be legal, including 44% of those supporting the former president. Over 4,000 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were questioned in the polls, with an overall sampling error for all respondents of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. The margin of error in the six states ranged from plus or minus 3.6 to 4.6 percentage points. The polls suggest a deadlock race with six months to go until Election Day.
