A month before the regional elections in the Basque Country, the dispute for the first place is tighter than ever between the PNV and EH Bildu. According to a survey by 40dB for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER, the two nationalist parties are almost tied in voting intention and seat projection for the elections on April 21st. Despite the overwhelming dominance of Basque nationalism as a whole, with both parties securing almost 70% of the votes, only 13% of respondents support independence. The survey predicts that the current coalition government of the PNV and the PSE-PSOE is likely to be reelected after April 21st, maintaining a majority in the autonomous Parliament.
The main question is whether the left-wing nationalist EH Bildu will become the first party in the community for the first time in almost half a century of autonomy and nearly 13 years after the end of ETA terrorism. The survey shows a tie between the two nationalist parties with a slight advantage for the PNV in voting intention at 34.2% compared to 33.7% for EH Bildu. The Socialists, with similar results to four years ago, would gain one seat, allowing the current government coalition to have 39 of the 75 seats in Parliament, one more than the absolute majority.
The survey indicates a decline for the PNV, which has governed for most of the autonomous period except for three years, from 2009 to 2012. The party could lose three parliamentarians and drop by 4.5 points compared to 2020. Meanwhile, EH Bildu seems poised to make significant gains, potentially increasing by six points and securing seven more seats. They are likely to attract former Unidas Podemos voters and some abstainers, as well as a percentage of previous PNV and PSE supporters.
In terms of national parties, little has changed except for a slight increase of about one and a half points for the PP. However, this would not improve their current six seats in Parliament, keeping them in a marginal position with 8% of the vote, almost six points behind the PSE. Vox would maintain its single seat, while Sumar and Podemos are at risk of falling outside of Parliament. The candidate renewal for the major parties has led to low familiarity among citizens, affecting their preferences for the future Lehendakari.
The survey also shows that most Basques lean left politically, with an average self-identification of 3.9 on a scale from 0 (far left) to 10 (far right). Unlike Catalonia, the Basque nationalism has downplayed the independence issue, with a majority preferring increased autonomy or maintaining the current situation. The biggest concerns among respondents include healthcare and other public services, as well as economic issues and housing. Despite some satisfaction with the state of the Basque Country, a significant portion believe it has worsened in the past four years, with only a small minority disapproving of the regional government’s performance.
