According to the latest survey by the Demopolis Institute, if elections were held today for the European Parliament, Fratelli d’Italia would be the leading party in Italy with 27.2% of the vote, 6.5 points ahead of the Democratic Party at 20.7%. The Five Star Movement is currently at 15%, trying to maintain its support without the presence of Conte and other prominent figures on the list. Forza Italia with Noi Moderati is at 8.6%, competing for fourth place with the League at 8.5%. The United States of Europe list would have 4.6% and the Green Left Alliance 4.3%. Three other lists are aiming to reach the 4% threshold required to enter the European Parliament.
The director of Demopolis, Pietro Vento, explains that the majority of Italians voting decisions will primarily be influenced by the party and internal political issues, with only 28% focusing on the candidates on the list and 19% considering the European programs of the parties. The decision of Premier Meloni and other party leaders on the center-right and center-left to run as lead candidates without intending to go to Brussels if elected has been critically evaluated by the majority of Italians. However, 70% of FdI voters accept voting for Giorgia Meloni to strengthen her politically, knowing she will stay in Rome. Positive evaluations decrease to 18% among PD voters and 3% among M5S voters. The presence of leaders in the list does impact the support, with Fratelli d’Italia gaining over 2 percentage points with Giorgia Meloni as a candidate.
The analysis also looked at the controversial candidacy of General Roberto Vannacci for the European Parliament elections. Despite political affiliations, 68% of Lega voters support his candidacy, as do 40% of FdI supporters and a third of Forza Italia voters. However, only 5% of M5S voters and 2% of PD voters believe Vannacci’s candidacy is appropriate for the European elections. These varying opinions reflect the diverse views among Italian voters regarding the selection of candidates for the upcoming European elections, with some parties benefiting more than others from certain candidates on their lists.
The focus on the upcoming European Parliament elections in Italy has shed light on the strategies and preferences of voters leading up to the vote on June 8-9. Fratelli d’Italia’s current position as the leading party indicates a significant level of support for the right-wing party, while the Democratic Party is striving to close the gap and maintain influence. The analysis by the Demopolis Institute provides valuable insights into the dynamics of Italian politics and the factors influencing voter decisions, from party loyalty to candidate selection and European policy programs. As the election approaches, the competition between parties intensifies, with each seeking to attract and retain support among the Italian electorate.
The impact of candidate choices and party platforms on voter decisions will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the European Parliament elections in Italy. With various parties vying for support and positioning themselves on key issues, such as immigration, the economy, and EU relations, the campaign leading up to the June vote will be crucial for shaping the future of Italian politics and representation in Brussels. As parties make final preparations and engage with voters through campaigns and debates, the final outcome remains uncertain, with shifting allegiances and unexpected developments potentially shaping the composition of Italy’s representation in the European Parliament. The results of the upcoming elections will not only reflect the current political landscape in Italy but also have far-reaching implications for the future direction of the country within the broader European context.
