Michigan is once again poised to play a pivotal role in the upcoming presidential election, with voters in the state set to decide on competitive races that could potentially shift the balance of power in both chambers of Congress as well as the state House of Representatives. In the 2016 election, Michigan, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, narrowly went to Republican Donald Trump after decades of supporting Democratic candidates. However, in 2020, Democrat Joe Biden managed to win all three states back for the Democrats, including Michigan, by a margin of about 154,000 votes out of over 5.5 million votes cast. Both Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris have been actively campaigning in Michigan to secure the state’s crucial 15 electoral votes.
In the U.S. Senate race in Michigan, Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers are facing off to replace Democratic incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who decided to retire after serving five terms. Rogers, a former House Intelligence Committee chairman, came out of retirement to enter the race, giving Republicans a chance to potentially gain a Senate seat that has been held by Democrats for 24 years. Slotkin, who has successfully kept her Lansing-area swing district in Democratic hands since 2018, is facing a tough challenge from Rogers. Additionally, other key congressional races in districts like the 7th and 8th, where voters narrowly backed Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, are also being closely watched.
In the state Legislature, Democrats are defending their narrow majority in the state House, which they won in 2020 and reclaimed in April after winning special elections to fill vacancies. All 110 state House seats are up for election this year, making it a critical battleground for both national parties. Democrats also hold a small majority in the state Senate, but those seats will not be up for election until 2026. The state legislative campaign organizations for both parties have identified Michigan as a top priority for the November election, indicating the significance of the state in determining the overall balance of power.
Key details about the 2024 election in Michigan include the Election Day on Nov. 5, with poll closing times varying due to Michigan covering two time zones. The state awards 15 electoral votes to the statewide winner. Major races to watch include the presidential race between Harris, Trump, and other third-party candidates, as well as the competitive Senate and congressional races. The implementation of new laws allowing for earlier processing of absentee mail ballots aims to speed up the release of mail voting totals and prevent delays in ballot counting like those seen in the 2020 election, which faced criticism from then-President Trump. Key counties to watch in Michigan include Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Kent, Genesee, and Washtenaw, each playing a significant role in statewide elections.
Recounts are automatic in statewide races in Michigan if the margin between the top two candidates is 2,000 votes or fewer, while candidates can request a recount regardless of the margin. The state will cover the cost of a recount if it changes the outcome. The AP will refrain from calling winners until all polls have closed and final votes have been tabulated by 9 p.m. ET. Voter registration in Michigan stands at over 8.4 million, with a voter turnout of 68% in the 2020 presidential election. Pre-Election Day voting has seen an increase in recent years, with about 42% of the total vote cast before Election Day in 2022. The vote-counting process typically begins shortly after polls close, with about 45% of total votes reported by midnight. Overall, Michigan remains a critical battleground state with key races that could have a significant impact on the national political landscape.
