A recent survey conducted by Ipsos for Euronews suggests that Nordic nations such as Sweden, Denmark, and Finland are set to become the EU’s social-democrat stronghold in the upcoming elections. This is unusual in Europe, where right-wing parties typically dominate. The survey interviewed 26,000 people across countries representing 96% of the EU population, including 1,000 in each of the three Nordic countries. Despite being known as some of the happiest nations in the world, according to a recent report from Gallup and Oxford University, voters in these countries are not content with Green or Liberal politicians. The survey predicts that social democrats will send the largest delegations from Denmark, Sweden, and Finland to the European Parliament.
The Nordic bloc’s delegation of 51 MEPs is not expected to reflect the rising support for the radical right seen across Europe. The survey indicates that the one MEP from the ID Group, belonging to the Danish People’s Party, will be lost, but it may be replaced by the Danish Democrats, a newcomer populist party. The elections are scheduled to take place from 6-9 June 2024, and are expected to be one of the world’s biggest democratic exercises. Voters in the Nordic countries are likely to punish the pro-European Green and Liberal parties, with their MEP total projected to decrease from 20 to 13. This trend is in line with wider trends across Europe, where parties like Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party and the German Greens are also facing challenges from voters.
The survey also highlights the political splintering in the Nordic countries, with Denmark’s 15 MEPs set to be divided among nine parties, and Sweden’s among eight. This could mean that up to ten Nordic parties end up sending delegations consisting of just a single MEP each. The Liberal Alliance party in Denmark is particularly uncertain, as it currently has no MEPs but is predicted to claim two in the upcoming elections. The party has been associated with both the center-right EPP and the Liberal coalition Renew in the past, adding to the complexity of the political landscape in the region. The survey points to a general dissatisfaction with traditional political parties and a desire for change among Nordic voters.
Overall, the upcoming European Parliament elections in the Nordic countries are expected to favor social democrats over Green and Liberal parties. Despite being known for their happiness, voters in Sweden, Denmark, and Finland are showing discontent with current political leadership. The rise of populist parties and the decline of traditional parties like the Greens and Liberals are reflective of wider trends across Europe. The fragmented political landscape in the Nordic countries adds uncertainty to the election outcome, with multiple parties vying for representation in the European Parliament. As the region prepares for one of the largest democratic exercises in the world, the Nordic bloc may see significant shifts in political power and representation in the EU.
