Since 1987, the Popular Party (PP) has never won in the whole of Andalusia in European elections in Spain. However, now they are aiming to achieve their fourth consecutive victory in the most populous region of the country, in order to further consolidate their position halfway through the Andalusian legislative term. Despite the challenge ahead, sources from the PP leadership admit that the centrist-right electorate does not feel as engaged in these elections as in other polls.
President of the PP in Andalusia and President of the Junta, Juan Manuel Moreno, has seen a series of electoral successes since June 2022. From winning by an absolute majority and a 19-point lead over the PSOE in the regional elections of that year to gaining all eight capitals of the communities and six of the provincial councils in the municipal elections of May 2023, and triumphing over the socialists by three points in Andalusia in the general elections of July of the following year, Moreno is now aiming for a fourth consecutive victory in the upcoming European elections.
Taking the upcoming European Parliament elections on June 9 seriously, Moreno intends to campaign exclusively in Andalusia, opting out of participating in the national tours of his party. He will once again lead the campaign, a move that comes with its own risks if victory expectations are not met. This would mark a setback for Moreno as President and a victory for the socialist Juan Espadas, although neither of them will play a leading role in the election.
In the last European elections, which saw high participation (64.3%) being held simultaneously with the municipal elections, the PSOE emerged victorious over the PP nationwide, with a 7.3 million votes to 4.5 million lead and a 12-point lead. The gap was even wider in Andalusia where the socialists had an 18-point advantage over the Popular Party. While the socialists are approaching the upcoming elections in good spirits following Salvador Illa’s victory in Catalonia, they acknowledge the difficulty in surpassing the PP in Andalusia, though they hope to come close.
The PP has brought the European agenda to the Andalusian Parliament through a question asked by their spokesperson, Toni Martín, to the President of the Junta during a control session. Moreno has emphasized his priorities, including the appointment of a commissioner for water in the future European Commission, citing concerns about climatic conditions and the lack of hydraulic infrastructure that could hinder Andalusia’s development. He has also distanced himself from Vox in criticizing the Agenda 2030, arguing that Vox and the PSOE “need and feed off each other” in their campaign arguments.
In a recent meeting organized by the Cadena SER and EL PAÍS, President Moreno advocated for a re-edition of the agreement between center-left, center-right, and liberal European parties in the European Commission. He also expressed his opposition to the entry of the far right into European institutions, stating that it is his preferred option. Despite the challenges ahead, the political landscape in Andalusia is set for a competitive and dynamic campaign leading up to the European elections.
