California’s decline in population is not uniform across the state, with coastal counties like Los Angeles and San Francisco experiencing significant losses, while central valley counties like San Benito, Yuba, and Mader are seeing increases in population. This migration towards the Central Valley has been largely driven by housing costs, congestion, and the overall cost of living in coastal areas. As a result, about a third of Californians are considering leaving the state due to housing costs, with a particularly steep decline in higher income households post-COVID-19. The new normal of remote work may be influencing this trend, as well as political reasons cited by some residents.
In addition to steady outmigration, California’s birth rates are also near record lows, with fertility rates dropping from above the national average in 2008 to the seventh lowest in the country by 2020. This demographic shift is leading to an older population in California, with projections indicating that one in every four Californians will be over the age of 60 by 2031. This aging population presents challenges for policy-making in areas such as health care, transportation, and other key services. Furthermore, the changing demographic landscape and outmigration may impact California’s position as a leader in research and innovation, with potential consequences for the state’s political representation.
The overall decline in population growth in California raises questions about the state’s future trajectory. In 2020, California lost a congressional seat for the first time following the census, and continued slow growth could lead to more losses in the future. This trend could have wide-ranging implications for the state’s economy, political influence, and ability to provide key services to its residents. As California grapples with these demographic challenges, stakeholders will need to address issues related to housing, affordability, and attracting and retaining a diverse population to ensure the state’s continued growth and prosperity.
