South Korean intelligence believes that Russia could potentially fight alongside North Korea in the event of a war against Seoul. This information was reported by the Korea Herald and was based on insights from Representative Wi Sung-lac, who stated that 10,000 North Korean soldiers were training in Russia and could potentially be deployed to fight Ukraine within weeks. Wi, a former South Korean ambassador to Russia, mentioned that North Korea has a history of supporting Russia in conflicts and could expect military aid from Russia in a hypothetical war on the Korean Peninsula. In exchange for this military assistance, North Korea is reportedly receiving financial assistance, food supplies, and space technology help from Russia.
According to the report from the Korea Herald, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) also believes that Russia might be assisting North Korea with advanced space technology, possibly in relation to launching a military reconnaissance satellite into space. Representative Wi Sung-lac commented that the tradeoff between North Korea and Russia was favorable for the former, with Russia expected to pay North Korea over $200 million annually for the 10,000 soldiers and provide up to 700,000 metric tons of rice. This mutually beneficial relationship is seen as an important factor in the cooperation between the two countries, especially in terms of military support and technological assistance.
In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a mutual defense agreement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during a visit to North Korea, solidifying their military cooperation. Nam Sung-wook, former head of an NIS-affiliated think tank, suggested that this cooperation between North Korea and Russia is likely to continue even beyond the war in Ukraine. The mutual defense pact signed by both countries includes provisions for immediate military assistance in case of an attack on either party, indicating the seriousness and binding nature of their commitment to each other in times of conflict.
The political implications of Russia’s potential assistance to North Korea have raised concerns and drawn attention from various sources. The NIS and South Korean lawmakers have been briefed on the extent of Russia’s involvement with North Korea, particularly in terms of military support and technology transfer. The ongoing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, including the deployment of North Korean soldiers to Russia for training, has sparked discussions and analysis on how this partnership could impact the geopolitical landscape, especially in light of recent global developments and conflicts.
The situation highlights the complex dynamics between different countries and their strategic alliances, especially in regions of conflict and tension. The evolving relationship between North Korea and Russia, as well as their mutual defense agreement, underscores the importance of understanding the geopolitical motivations and interests of various countries. The implications of potential military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, as well as the broader implications for regional and global security, warrant further analysis and assessment by experts and policymakers to address any potential risks and challenges that may arise in the future. It is essential to remain vigilant and informed about these developments to ensure the stability and security of the regions involved and prevent any escalation of tensions that could lead to armed conflict.
