Senator Sherrod Brown, a prominent Democrat in Ohio, is facing a tough re-election campaign in a state that has been trending towards Republicans. Recent polls show Brown trailing his GOP opponent, businessman Bernie Moreno, for the first time in this cycle. The ActiVote poll surveyed 400 likely voters and showed Moreno with a 2.2-point lead at 51.1% to Brown’s 48.9%. Another poll from RMG Research surveyed 781 likely voters and also showed Moreno leading by 2 points, with 48% to Brown’s 46%. Both polls have margins of error within 4.9 and 3.5 points respectively.
Despite being labeled a toss-up from the start, Brown had maintained a 3- to 5-point edge in previous polls. The recent data showing him falling behind has raised concerns among Democrats in Ohio. The RealClearPolitics polling average still gives Brown a 3.8-point advantage, but the latest polls indicate a shift in the race. Democrats are worried about Moreno gaining more ground and the potential impact on the Senate balance of power.
Analysts attribute Moreno’s surge to several key factors including the popularity of former President Donald Trump in Ohio, who leads Vice President Kamala Harris 50% to 44% according to polling averages. Moreno’s campaign message focuses on job creation, tax cuts, and wage boosts for Ohio workers, addressing the top concern of voters which is the economy. Immigration is also a significant issue for Ohioans, and Moreno has aligned himself with Trump’s aggressive deportation policies, appealing to voters concerned about immigration reform.
A potential defeat for Brown in the Ohio Senate race would be another blow to the state’s swing-state status, as Republicans have increasingly dominated at the state and federal levels. The GOP currently controls all three branches of state government as well as key offices like secretary of state, attorney general, and treasurer. Brown’s traditionally strong poll numbers and Ohio’s willingness to pass left-leaning ballot measures had given Democrats hope, but Moreno’s recent gains suggest a challenging environment for the Democratic Party in Ohio.
Critics of Brown, including spokesman for the House Republicans’ campaign arm Philip Letsou, accuse the senator of abandoning his working-class base to align with national Democratic figures like Chuck Schumer and Kamala Harris on issues like open borders, taxes, and green energy policies. After more than 50 years in politics, Ohio voters may be ready for a change, as reflected in Moreno’s recent rise in the polls. Both the Moreno and Brown campaigns declined to comment on the recent developments, leaving the future of the Ohio Senate race uncertain.
