The right-wing block in Catalonia – made up of the People’s Party (PP), Vox, and Citizens (Cs) – has not only been reconfigured in these Catalan elections, with the absorption of Cs’ electorate by the People’s Party, but has also advanced as a whole. The combined votes of the three parties have increased by 2.8 points compared to the 2021 elections, confirming that the right-wing parties are gaining ground in Catalonia, although in reality they are just regaining their positions from before the Catalan independence movement. One of the main reasons for this growth, according to some territorial leaders of the PP, is that both the PP and Vox embraced a discourse against irregular immigration during the campaign, linking it to crime. This thesis is reinforced by the emergence of a new far-right party in Catalonia whose main focus is xenophobic rhetoric against immigrants, Aliança Catalana, which has secured two seats in the Parliament.
The sum of the PP, Vox, and Cs (even though the latter did not secure any seats) has gained almost three percentage points in these elections, reaching almost 20% of the vote (19.65%) and 26 seats. In 2021, the block had reached 16.85% of the vote, with 20 seats. While the three right-wing parties have gained support compared to the previous regional elections, historically they are still below previous levels. In the 2017, 2015, and 2012 regional elections, the block (which at that time only consisted of PP and Cs, as Vox did not have representation) exceeded 20%. In 2017, during the Catalan independence movement, it even reached 30%, when the Cs party led by Inés Arrimadas won the elections with 25% of the vote on its own.
Despite their satisfaction with the results of these elections, the People’s Party has still not reached its highest levels. While they have quintupled their seats from three to 15, with 10.97% of the votes, they have not yet reached the peak that the candidate Alicia Sánchez-Camacho achieved in 2012 (12.99% of the votes and 19 seats). The recent general elections on July 23 also saw a slightly better result for the right-wing block in Catalonia compared to these regional elections. The PP and Vox together received 21.1% of the vote then. In the municipal elections on May 28, however, they only reached 13.23%. There is a phenomenon of dual voting in Catalonia, where voters may behave differently in regional elections compared to general elections.
The novelty of this occasion is that the vote for the right-wing block in regional and general elections is quite similar, and for the first time, the People’s Party has seen an increase while Vox has maintained its levels. Some sources from the PP attribute this phenomenon to the “nationalization” of these Catalan elections, possibly due to Pedro Sánchez’s resignation threat just before the campaign began. Others in the party attribute the increase in support to concerns about immigration. Both the PP and Vox have focused their campaigns on immigration issues, with messages that may be considered xenophobic and linking immigrants to crime. The People’s Party has associated irregular immigration with issues of insecurity and squatting, while Vox has spread misinformation to stoke fear.
The increase in the People’s Party’s support can be mainly attributed to the absorption of Cs’ voters. In 2021, the combined vote of the PP and Cs was 9.29%, and this Sunday the PP received 10.97% of the votes. Taking into account that Cs maintained 0.72% of the votes (not enough to gain a seat), the PP would have increased by around 2.40% on its own. The application of the electoral law also plays a role in the increased number of seats for the People’s Party, as they moved from the fourth to the eighth position in the Parliament, making their seats more cost-effective. The People’s Party claims to have not only absorbed Cs’ voters but also gained some support from the Socialists. However, the Socialists have seen an increase of 5.26% in their votes, which is higher than the estimated increase in support for the PP and Cs combined.
In a TV interview, the People’s Party candidate Alejandro Fernández referred to the absorption of Cs’ voters and made a call to those who voted for Cs to join their party. He expressed confidence in rebuilding a winning constitutionalist project similar to Cs with the People’s Party of Catalonia. Fernández also indicated hesitance in supporting the investiture of the election winner, the leader of the Socialists, due to concerns about their alliances with pro-independence parties. The discourse against immigration and the focus on national issues seem to have driven the increase in support for right-wing parties in Catalonia, with the People’s Party benefiting from the absorption of Cs’ voters.
