Despite struggling with certain voter groups, Kamala Harris has a small national edge over Donald Trump. She is performing well among groups that previous Democratic presidential nominees have had difficulty with, including senior citizens. Recent polls show Harris leading Trump among voters aged 65 and older, marking a significant turnaround from earlier predictions where Trump was favored among this demographic. Biden also did better with older voters in 2020 compared to Barack Obama in 2012, despite similar national performances among all voters.
Harris’s appeal to senior citizens could be beneficial for her campaign, especially considering her challenges with young voters in recent national polls. Older Americans have a greater influence in elections due to their higher voter registration and turnout rates. They make up a larger share of the electorate compared to younger voters, particularly in swing states. The power of the older voting bloc has been increasing over the years, with seniors becoming an essential demographic for political candidates to engage with.
There is a possibility that pre-election polling may not accurately reflect the voting trends, as was the case in the 2016 election. Trump was able to win over older voters despite initial signs of a shifting demographic towards the Democratic party. Biden also had stronger support among younger voters in previous polls, but the actual election results showed an overestimation of his standing with various voter groups. The current age polarization among voters is paired with racial depolarization, as Trump gains support from Black and Hispanic voters while Harris performs better with White voters.
The trade-off between losing support from smaller demographic groups and gaining among larger groups seems to be working in Harris’s favor in the polls. However, the question remains whether Trump’s support among younger, Black, and Hispanic voters could negate any gains Harris has made with White and older voters. Despite uncertainties, there is a possibility of a less divided electorate in terms of key demographics, suggesting a shift in voter preferences and behaviors that could impact the upcoming election. Harris’s ability to navigate these changes and appeal to a broad range of voters will be crucial in determining the outcome of the election.
