Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is currently facing a tough reelection battle against his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy in Montana. In a recent poll conducted by AARP, Tester is lagging behind by eight points, raising hopes for Republicans to potentially flip the Senate. When third-party candidates are included, Sheehy leads Tester 49% to 41%, and even in a head-to-head matchup, Sheehy still maintains a lead with 51% support to Tester’s 45%. This race is seen as crucial in potentially tipping the balance of power in the Senate.
The Senate is currently split with 51 senators caucusing with the Democrats and 49 with the Republicans. With West Virginia expected to flip Republican, Montana becomes a key battleground state as Tester is one of the few Democratic senators in a predominantly red state. Sheehy currently holds a lead in the polls, with Montana being the next deepest red state after West Virginia. Former President Donald Trump won the state by a significant margin in the 2020 election, and Tester has been in the Senate since 2007, winning a close race in 2018.
Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, has emerged as a strong contender for the Senate seat, with a 5.2 percentage point advantage in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls. Several top Republican leaders, including National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines, have thrown their support behind Sheehy, emphasizing the importance of candidate quality in this election cycle. Republicans are hopeful of poaching at least one more seat from the Democrats to potentially break a tie in the Senate, where the vice president casts the tiebreaker vote.
Democrats are facing a tough battle in defending 23 seats, including those held by Independents, compared to the Republicans’ 11 seats in the Senate this cycle. The Cook Political Report has identified Montana, Ohio, and Michigan as tossup states, indicating the competitiveness of these races. With only a few weeks left until the election, both parties are strategizing to secure important victories in key battleground states to gain control of the Senate.
The AARP survey, conducted between August 25-29, sampled 1,064 likely voters and included an oversample of voters over the age of 50. The poll revealed a significant lead for Sheehy over Tester, highlighting the challenging reelection campaign the incumbent senator is facing. As the race in Montana intensifies, both parties are closely monitoring the developments to gauge the potential impact on the overall balance of power in the Senate. Tester will need to rally his supporters and overcome the current polling deficit to secure another term in office.
In the midst of a highly contested Senate race in Montana, the battle between Jon Tester and Tim Sheehy has garnered national attention as Republicans aim to flip the Senate. With Tester trailing behind his Republican challenger in recent polls, the outcome of this race could have significant implications for the balance of power in the Senate. As the election draws nearer, both parties are ramping up their efforts to secure crucial victories in key battleground states, making the Montana Senate contest a focal point of the 2022 midterm elections.
