The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has assessed that Russia may make significant changes to its anticipated summer offensive against Ukraine, as Ukraine prepares to receive long-awaited military aid from the U.S. The Russian military had likely assumed that Ukraine would not be able to defend against their offensive due to delays or the end of U.S. military assistance. Kyiv has warned of a potential upcoming offensive by Russia, starting as early as the end of May, and has emphasized that delays in military aid have limited their ability to fight back against recent Kremlin gains.
The U.S. House of Representatives recently approved over $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, which had been delayed due to political infighting. The Senate will now vote on the package before it goes to President Biden for approval. However, it will take weeks for the aid to arrive on the battlefield and make a difference, during which time Ukraine may continue to lose ground to Russia. Moscow may take advantage of this window before the arrival of new aid to increase its attacks.
The ISW suggests that the Russian military command may consider making significant changes to their planned large-scale offensive operation expected to launch in June. However, they may still proceed as planned. Kyiv may be able to blunt the current Russian offensive assuming the resumed U.S. assistance arrives promptly. Ukraine has been facing shortages of essential supplies such as ammunition and interceptor missiles, signaling that Russia may be preparing for a major push or replenishing its ranks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had warned that Ukraine would lose the war if Congress did not approve the new military aid. He praised the House of Representatives for passing the aid package, calling it significant. Zelensky expressed gratitude for the support for Ukraine’s independence and way of life, which Russia is attempting to undermine. It is crucial for Ukraine to receive the aid promptly in order to defend against Russian aggression.
Russia has not yet responded to requests for comment on the assessment by the ISW. The situation in Ukraine remains tense as both sides prepare for potential conflict. The outcome of the Senate vote on the aid package and the subsequent arrival of the assistance will play a significant role in determining Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian forces. The international community is closely monitoring the situation and providing support to Ukraine in its efforts to resist Russian aggression and protect its sovereignty.
