The Democratic National Committee and big donors are ramping up efforts to combat the potential threat posed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent presidential bid to President Joe Biden’s reelection. Kennedy’s appeal is not fully understood, and if he manages to get on the ballot in key states, he could draw votes away from both Biden and former President Donald Trump. The Kennedy campaign rejects the idea of being pigeonholed into conventional political categories and appeals to voters who have unsubscribed from the right-left paradigm.
Kennedy, an environmental attorney and member of the famous Democratic dynasty, is polling at roughly 12% nationally against Biden and Trump, but his base is unclear. Despite the focus on his campaign, third-party candidates historically struggle to garner more than 1% of the popular vote in presidential elections.Though Kennedy faces hurdles in obtaining ballot access, he has collected enough signatures in several states. His potential appeal to Trump voters is based on his vaccine skepticism, anti-establishment views, and stance on various conservative issues.
Kennedy’s candidacy is thought to attract voters who are dissatisfied with both Biden and Trump, known as “double haters.” His anti-vaccine stance could particularly resonate with right-leaning voters displeased with Trump’s handling of COVID-19. However, opinions differ on whether Kennedy poses a bigger threat to Biden or Trump. Internal polling reveals older voters with positive associations with the Kennedy name and younger voters with a conspiratorial worldview as key groups attracted to his campaign.
The Republican National Committee and GOP donors have not launched an initiative to combat Kennedy, possibly due to limited funds or the belief that Kennedy poses only a limited threat to Trump. Some Republican megadonors, such as Timothy Mellon, see Kennedy’s campaign as beneficial to Trump and have contributed to both pro-Trump and pro-Kennedy super PACs. Kennedy’s choice of a liberal running mate suggests an appeal to Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents rather than Republicans and Republican-leaning voters.
Kennedy’s selection of Nicole Shanahan as a running mate, a Silicon Valley lawyer and Democratic donor, may make it easier for opponents to paint him as a radical leftist. Despite initial GOP support for Kennedy, Republican entities have highlighted his liberal stances on environmentalism, social welfare, and other issues. Kennedy’s positions on progressive policies could make him a target for attacks on his orthodox views and his appeal to the Democratic base.
In conclusion, the race for the 2024 presidential election is still in the early stages, but Kennedy’s campaign has gained attention for its potential impact on both major-party candidates. He has managed to gather enough signatures to get on the ballot in several key states, and his appeal to certain voter groups, including those dissatisfied with both Biden and Trump, has sparked concerns among Democrats and intrigue within the GOP. Kennedy’s unorthodox views and association with prominent donors suggest a campaign that could play a significant role in shaping the electoral landscape in the coming months.
