Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, along with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed revenge against Israel for a deadly airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Syria that killed nearly 10 Iranian officials, including a top commander in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards. Israel has not confirmed responsibility for the attack, but Iranian leaders also hold the U.S. responsible due to its support for Israel. The strike targeted a building adjacent to the consulate, leading experts to believe that Iran will respond using proxies such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other militias.
Experts suggest that Iran is not likely to respond directly against Israel, but rather use its proxies to target Israeli interests overseas or possibly within Israel. Hezbollah has already vowed “punishment and revenge” for the attack, calling those killed in the strike “martyrs.” Yigal Carmon, a former adviser on countering terrorism, believes that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei will not escalate the situation by targeting Israel directly, but will continue the proxy game by using groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah to carry out attacks.
The U.S. expressed concern over the reported strike, with State Department spokesperson Matt Miller stating that the U.S. did not have confirmation of the target or responsible party, but acknowledged the potential for increased conflict in the region. Iranian leaders, including Raisi and Khamenei, have promised retaliation against Israel for the attack on the consulate in Syria. The strike killed some high-ranking Iranian military officials, including Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a top commander in the Revolutionary Guards, and senior commander Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, making it one of the deadliest attacks against Iran in recent years.
Bill Roggio, managing editor of Long War Journal, believes that Iran may respond by targeting Israelis overseas and leveraging its militias to strike at targets in Israel. However, it is unclear how Iran will ultimately choose to respond to the attack on its consulate. The use of proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis to carry out retaliatory attacks against Israel is seen as a likely scenario. Yigal Carmon’s assessment is that Khamenei will avoid an all-out war with Israel and instead continue to use proxies to target Israeli interests as part of the ongoing proxy game between the two countries.
The nature of the attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria has raised tensions in the region, with Iran vowing revenge against Israel for the deaths of its officials. The U.S. has expressed concern over the potential escalation of conflict, while experts speculate on Iran’s likely response using proxies to target Israeli interests. Despite the deadly strike on the consulate, it remains to be seen how Iran will choose to retaliate against Israel, with the use of proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis being a common tactic in the ongoing conflict between the two countries.
