The combination of President-elect Donald Trump’s planned resurgence of his maximum pressure campaign against Iran along with a chronic gas shortage in the country may be the key factors in toppling the world’s worst state-sponsor of terrorism, according to expert Lisa Daftari. She highlights the vulnerabilities of the Iranian regime, citing defeats of Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and the Syrian regime as signs of their weakening influence. The plummeting Rial and mismanagement of resources despite the lifting of sanctions under Biden’s administration are putting immense pressure on the regime, potentially setting the stage for regime change.
The severe gas shortages and widespread blackouts in Iran have shaken the ruling regime, sparking fears of social and political unrest. The rulers, quick to impose violence on dissent, have faced nationwide protests over fuel prices and the strict enforcement of the compulsory hijab for women. These protests have led to calls for the dissolution of the Islamic Republic. The head of Iran’s judiciary has issued a directive to prevent unrest amid the power and gas outages, emphasizing the need for security and stability in the face of potential threats to the regime.
Years of underinvestment, economic mismanagement, corruption, and sanctions have left Iran’s energy sector ill-prepared to handle seasonal surges, despite its vast natural gas and oil reserves. The Iranian regime has also allocated significant funds to support its terrorist proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, with estimates ranging from $700 million to $1 billion a year for Hezbollah and $100 million a year for Hamas. The plummeting value of the Iranian rial and the closure of schools, universities, and government offices due to the worsening energy crisis highlight the challenges facing Tehran as it navigates internal and external pressures.
The combination of President Trump’s likely return to maximum pressure on Iran and the ongoing gas shortage could create an environment conducive to demanding regime change from the Iranian people. The rulers of Iran are facing increasing pressure as the Iranian rial hits record lows and the energy crisis worsens. The regime’s efforts to prevent unrest and stabilize the country are indicative of the underlying fragility of their grip on power, as highlighted by past protests and violent responses to dissent.
The intense economic pressure on Iran due to mismanagement, corruption, and sanctions has weakened the regime’s control over the country. The diversion of funds to support terrorist proxies in Lebanon and Gaza has further strained the Iranian economy, as evidenced by the drastic fall in the value of the Iranian rial. The closure of schools, universities, and government offices due to the energy crisis underscores the challenges facing Iran as it grapples with internal unrest and external pressures, including the looming threat of renewed maximum pressure from the US.
The situation in Iran reflects a country in turmoil, with a fragile regime facing mounting challenges on multiple fronts. The combination of economic mismanagement, corruption, sanctions, and pressure from external actors like the US has exposed the vulnerabilities of the Iranian regime. The internal unrest, fueled by severe gas shortages and economic woes, has the potential to destabilize the regime further and pave the way for significant changes in Iran’s political landscape. As the international community watches and assesses the situation in Iran, the prospect of regime change and its implications for regional dynamics are becoming increasingly significant.
