The latest Insa survey shows that currently no coalition could be formed against the Union. The head of the polling institute, Hermann Binkert, mentions two realistic scenarios. The AfD has slightly lost popularity in the polls due to bribery allegations against their European election candidate Petr Bystron. In this week’s “Sonntagstrend” survey conducted by Insa for “Bild am Sonntag,” the AfD stands at 19 percent, which is one percentage point less than the previous week. Bystron has faced accusations related to the Czech portal “Voice of Europe,” with reports claiming he received money from a pro-Russian network connected to the portal. Bystron, who is of Czech descent and is running as the second candidate on the AfD list for the European elections in June, denies the allegations.
The strongest party in the Insa survey once again is the Union, which has seen a one percentage point increase to 31 percent, almost matching the combined percentage of the three Ampel parties currently in government (33 percent). The Chancellor’s party SPD remains stable at 15 percent, the Greens at 13 percent, and the FDP at five percent. The Left Party once again falls to three percent, marking the 24th consecutive week below the five percent threshold needed to enter the Bundestag. The newly formed alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) remains at six percent. Other parties could gather eight percent of the votes, including the Free Voters with a two percent approval rating. Insa Head Hermann Binkert explained in “BamS” that there are currently parliamentary majorities for a Black-Red coalition and for a Jamaica coalition consisting of the Union, Greens, and FDP. While there is also numerical support for a coalition of Union, Greens, and BSW, as well as a CDU/CSU and AfD coalition, these scenarios are not considered politically realistic.
Binkert added that “Without and against the Union, no government can be formed.” This highlights the Union’s stronghold in the current political landscape. While other parties have fluctuated in the polls, the Union’s consistent lead indicates the significance of their position in potential coalition formations. The allegations against the AfD candidate Bystron have impacted the party’s popularity, but it seems that the Union continues to gain support. The stable numbers for the SPD, Greens, and FDP suggest a relatively consistent political landscape, with the Left Party struggling to meet the threshold for parliamentary representation. It remains to be seen how these trends will influence future political developments in Germany.
Overall, the Insa survey paints a portrait of a political landscape where the Union remains a dominant force, making it difficult for any coalition to be formed against them. While the AfD has faced setbacks in the polls due to allegations of bribery, other parties have maintained relatively stable levels of support. The possibility of various coalition scenarios underscores the complexity of German politics and the importance of strategic alliances in forming a government. As the election approaches, these poll results will likely continue to shape political discourse and influence decision-making among the parties involved. The dynamics of coalition-building and party strategies will play a crucial role in determining the future direction of governance in Germany.
