Downballot elections at the beginning of 2025 will provide the first test of the political environment after recent Republican victories. Special legislative elections in Virginia, a Wisconsin Supreme Court race, and special elections for Trump’s current and former Cabinet picks will attract attention and funding during an off-year. These contests will have ramifications for both the GOP, looking to build on momentum, and the Democratic Party, seeking to regain its footing. Here are the key state and local races to watch in early 2025.
In Virginia, a pair of special elections in Loudoun County on Jan. 7 will determine control of the state legislature. The outcomes will influence the balance of power in the state Senate and House of Delegates. Democrat Kannan Srinivasan and Republican Tumay Harding are vying for the state Senate seat, while Democrat JJ Singh and Republican Ram Venkatachalam are competing for the state House seat. The elections will indicate Virginia’s political direction following recent shifts in voter preferences and provide insight into the upcoming gubernatorial race in November 2025.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court race in April will decide the ideological makeup of the state’s bench. Liberal Susan Crawford and conservative Brad Schimel are the main candidates in this consequential election that touches on issues like abortion rights and redistricting. Republicans intend to focus on the overall control of the court, emphasizing its impact on state policies and legislation. Democrats, while acknowledging the challenging political landscape, plan to leverage progressive energy and criticize Schimel’s alignment with the broader Trump-centered GOP.
Special U.S. House elections will take place to fill seats vacated by members of Congress tapped for Trump’s Cabinet. Republican strongholds in Florida and New York will be up for grabs in races to replace Rep. Mike Waltz and former Rep. Matt Gaetz, among others. These special elections will indicate public sentiment towards the early months of Trump’s second term. Waltz’s resignation on Jan. 20 and Stefanik’s expected departure will trigger the primaries and general elections for these seats. Despite the districts’ strong Republican leanings, the margins of victory will provide valuable insights into the electorate’s mood.
The Virginia and Wisconsin races will be closely watched for indications of national trends and dynamics. Virginia’s special elections will signal the state’s political direction following recent shifts in voter sentiment. In Wisconsin, the ideological balance of the Supreme Court, a pivotal swing state institution, will be up for grabs. These contests have the potential to impact broader policy decisions and state governance. The outcomes of these elections will be scrutinized for their implications for the GOP and Democratic Party at both the state and national levels.
Republicans winning control of the Virginia state legislature could have significant implications for Governor Glenn Youngkin’s final year in office and his potential aspirations for higher office. In Wisconsin, the outcome of the Supreme Court race will determine the future direction of state policies and legal decisions. Both parties are gearing up for intense campaigns, with Democrats focusing on linking their opponents to the broader Trump-centered GOP and Republicans emphasizing the stakes of controlling key state institutions. The results of these races will shape the political landscape in both states and set the stage for future electoral battles.
Overall, the early 2025 downballot elections in Virginia, Wisconsin, and special U.S. House races will provide important insights into the post-Trump political environment. These contests will play a crucial role in shaping state policy decisions, determining legislative majorities, and influencing future gubernatorial races. Both Democrats and Republicans are gearing up for competitive campaigns, with high stakes and potential national reverberations. The outcomes of these races will be closely watched as indicators of voter sentiment, party strength, and the broader political climate in the aftermath of recent electoral shifts.
