Arab and Muslim voters began to shift away from the Democratic Party in this year’s election, leading to concerns among community leaders about a lasting change in voting patterns that have been reliably Democratic for the past two decades. While no single group was decisive in President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, the trend of voters of color moving towards Trump, despite his rhetoric, was notable. Muslim immigrants initially supported Republican George W. Bush in 2000 but turned away from the GOP due to his policies post-9/11. Since then, they have predominantly voted for Democrats, with institutional support aligning with the party, making Tuesday’s outcome surprising.
In a surprising turn, Trump won the city of Dearborn, Michigan, which has a large Arab American population, garnering 42% of the vote compared to Harris’ 36%. Green Party nominee Jill Stein also received significant support from the Arab community in the city. Nationally, the Council on American-Islamic Relations conducted its own poll of Muslim voters, showing a sharp decline in support for Vice President Harris due to dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s policies on Gaza. Muslim and Arab leaders feel that the Democratic Party did not take their concerns seriously, assuming they would return to the fold eventually.
Democratic leaders admit to a strategic and tactical blunder in handling Muslim voters, with many assuming they would vote Democrat once Trump’s potential victory became apparent. Harris’ campaign failed to properly engage the Arab and Muslim community, missing important opportunities for outreach and engagement. Despite warnings from Arab Democrats, their concerns were not addressed, leading to disillusionment and distrust towards the party. In contrast, Trump actively courted Arab American community leaders through roundtables, rallies, and personal interactions which increased his support in the community.
The Uncommitted movement, which sought to protest Biden’s policies on Israel, offered to endorse Harris in exchange for a speaker to address Palestinian issues, but this was refused. This rejection of a symbolic gesture further alienated Arab and Muslim voters from the Democratic Party, making it difficult to convince them that the party cared about their concerns. Democratic leaders insist that the party is not ready to abandon this demographic and hope that the outcome of this election can be seen as a specific moment rather than a permanent shift. Abdullah Hammoud, the Democratic mayor of Dearborn, emphasized that political parties cannot take the support of Arab and Muslim voters for granted.
Despite the unexpected shift in Arab and Muslim voting patterns towards Trump in the recent election, Democrats remain hopeful that this was circumstantial and not indicative of a long-term trend. The lack of engagement and acknowledgment of the concerns of the Arab American community by the Democratic Party has led to dissatisfaction and alienation among these voters. Moving forward, it will be crucial for Democrats to actively engage with these communities, address their concerns, and work towards building a mutually beneficial relationship that reflects the values and priorities of Arab and Muslim voters.
