President Biden has seen a modest improvement in the polls, with a recent New York Times/Siena College poll showing him trailing Donald Trump by only one percentage point among likely voters nationwide. This marks a slight increase for Biden since February when Trump had been leading by four points. On average, Biden has been running about 1.4 points better in post-State of the Union polls compared to earlier surveys by the same pollsters.
Despite the slight shift towards Biden in the polls, he still trails Trump overall. Biden’s approval rating remains in the upper 30s, with just 41 percent of voters having a favorable view of him. Additionally, voters still believe the economy is poor and disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy by nearly a two-to-one margin. However, the last month has seen some positive trends for Biden, including the conclusion of the primaries, the quieting of concerns about his age, and an uptick in consumer sentiment.
The movement towards Biden over the last month may indicate that he is starting to benefit from improving political conditions. The reality of a Trump-Biden rematch setting in, news related to abortion, the launch of Biden’s campaign efforts in battleground states, and increased consumer sentiment could all be contributing factors to the slight shift in the polls. While it is not guaranteed that Biden will continue to gain ground, the recent trends suggest that further gains may be possible in the coming months leading up to the election.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was not listed as an option in the presidential race in the recent poll, as he has limited ballot access in few states. However, there is a possibility that he may gain greater ballot access in the future and be included in future polls. Despite not being listed as an option, just under 2 percent of respondents expressed support for Kennedy in the Biden vs. Trump matchup. As the election draws closer, it may become increasingly important to incorporate Kennedy as a candidate in future polls to provide a more comprehensive view of voter preferences.
With seven months remaining until the election, the landscape could still shift in various directions. While Biden’s recent slight gains in the polls are encouraging for his campaign, there is still work to be done to overcome his current deficit against Trump. The upcoming months will be crucial for both candidates as they strive to secure support from voters and navigate the complex political environment leading up to the election. Ultimately, the race remains competitive, and the outcome is far from certain as both candidates continue to vie for the presidency.
