Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas expressed concern about the rise in sabotage, electronic warfare, and spying coming from Russia, especially as the war in Ukraine turns in Russia’s favor. She called on US and NATO allies to be tougher on Russia, specifically mentioning a “shadow war” being carried out against the West. Lithuanian and Polish leaders also highlighted acts of sabotage and arrests of individuals linked to Russia’s secret services. This is part of a wider pattern of hybrid operations by Russia, including cyberattacks, election interference, and disinformation, which Western officials believe will only increase with crucial elections approaching. Kallas emphasized the need for a coordinated approach to combat these threats.
Estonia has a history of aggressively pursuing and publicizing Russian espionage activity, often seizing more Russian agents per capita than other European nations. Some experts suggest that other countries could work harder at identifying and countering such threats. Former President Toomas Hendrik Ilves mentioned that some nations may be more hesitant to take action against Russia due to economic interests. Estonian officials and security experts also warned about the trend of Russia outsourcing attacks to locals recruited on gaming platforms and social media, making it difficult to trace these attacks back to Russia. This outsourcing of attacks has resulted in unintended deaths and injuries in the past.
Christo Grozev, a prominent journalist who exposed Russian intelligence involvement in several high-profile poisonings, has been a victim of Russia’s tactics. Grozev’s address was supplied to Russian intelligence by a former Austrian officer, leading to a break-in at his residence in 2022. Grozev emphasized the importance of intelligence sharing between security services and law enforcement agencies to combat foreign influence operations. There is currently no collective mechanism in Europe to address attacks attributed to Russia, prompting calls for the EU to take a more proactive role in addressing these threats. Kallas and other senior officials support limiting visas for Russian diplomats as a means of restricting their movements in the EU.
Estonia is pushing for separate sanctions within the EU to counter hybrid threats posed by Russia. These sanctions could dissuade intermediaries like local organized crime figures and potential collaborators from working for Russian intelligence. The exposure of such threats may cause instability and erosion of trust in some countries but could serve as an important deterrent against future attacks. Grozev emphasized that Russian intelligence agents running operations abroad are averse to being named and shamed, as it can impact their career prospects and that of their proxies. The threat of sanctions and limitations on travel and study opportunities can also discourage younger Russians from joining security services.
Overall, there is a growing recognition of the need for a coordinated and proactive approach to counter Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics in Europe. The West must be vigilant and united in the face of these threats, which seek to undermine unity and destabilize Western democracies. Leaders like Kallas, Grozev, and others are calling for greater intelligence sharing, targeted sanctions, and measures to expose and deter Russian influence operations. By working together and taking a firm stance against these threats, Western nations can better protect their security and democracy from foreign interference.
