What if this year’s baseball season had begun in mid-July instead of the end of March? If we consider the performance of teams from the second half of the year, we notice significant shifts in perspective about different contenders. Comparing second-half records for the teams making the postseason if it started today, the Padres, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Brewers, Mets, Astros, and Royals stand out as performing well. On the other hand, the Twins, Guardians, Phillies, Orioles, Yankees, and Braves have not done as well. Notably, the performance of the Phillies and Guardians has altered dramatically. The Philly and Guardians, from having the best records in the sport, have regressed to mediocre performances.
The divergent performance of baseball teams has less to do with talent and more to do with timing and team effort. The wild-card system was designed to allow teams with average second-half performances to still have a shot at the World Series. However, historically, it’s been a tough hill to climb. Only three teams with average or below-average second-half performance have ever made it to the World Series, and only one has ever won — the 2006 Cardinals.
Torey Lovullo of the 2023 Diamondbacks, a team with the worst second half in MLB history, notes that baseball as a sport is unpredictable. It’s an emotionally draining endeavor that can be extremely tough if one doesn’t maintain a steady mindset. According to Lovullo, maintaining consistency and not getting too high or too low following the ups and downs of the game is crucial. Teammates must believe in each other and have confidence in themselves, as spiraling can lead to disarray.
The Phillies, despite an impressive initial season, displayed a remarkable decline between July 12 and August 23. On the back of a series of notably bad games, their stellar start to the season was followed by a poor batting display and flagging team energy. Guardians followed a similar script — an outstanding start to the season being swiftly followed by a slide into mediocre performance in the second half.
The Cardinals’ 2006 win serves as a reminder to teams having a tough time in the second half. They bounced back from being one of the worst second-half performers to World Series champions. The Diamondbacks’ 2023 World Series appearance despite having a negative win-loss record in the second half of the season reinforces the possibility of a September comeback.
The key lesson from these mid-season slumps is that September has the potential to turn fortunes. Teams that have had an impressive first half, such as the 2006 Tigers, can often lose their momentum during the second half of the season. It is crucial for teams to reignite their focus and drive amidst this “lull.” As the postseason approaches, the onus is on the teams to remind themselves of the importance of performing consistently well, thereby distinguishing the champions from the rest. A team’s ability to regain momentum in September and enter the postseason on a high note is critical for championship success. After all, no team can win the championship if the slump persists.
