In a nondescript office in the Longworth U.S. House Office Building, Democratic staffers on the House Committee on Administration have been discussing nightmare scenarios for Jan. 6, 2025, focusing on ensuring security and debunking conspiracy theories. They are concerned about potential interference with the Electoral College certification process, recalling the chaos that occurred on Jan. 6, 2021, and the political fractures that followed. One particular concern is what would happen if the U.S. House fails to select a speaker by Jan. 6, 2025, which could add uncertainty to the certification of the winner of the presidential race.
The internal battle over choosing a House Speaker in 2023, after the midterm elections, has raised concerns about a potential repeat of the scenario in 2025, which could hinder the certification process in Congress. Democrats on the committee are researching precedents and conducting tabletop exercises to prepare for any attempts by supporters of former President Donald Trump to overturn election results. While there is no specific prescription in the Constitution for such a political standoff, experts warn that the current political climate may differ from what the drafters of the Constitution assumed.
A law passed in 2022 aimed to tighten standards and codify rules for the electoral certification process on Jan. 6, addressing potential vulnerabilities and uncertainties that existed before. The law reaffirmed the ministerial role of the vice president in counting electoral votes, raised the threshold for dissenters in Congress to object to state electors, and prevented the electoral count process from being used as a trigger for insurrection. Supporters argue that the House speaker has no meaningful role in certifying the presidential election, which should protect the process in 2025.
Despite the changes in the law, some Democrats remain concerned about potential exploitation of any uncertainty in the process and point to the lack of preparation for subterfuge on Jan. 6, 2021. With forecasts indicating a narrow majority in the House after the 2024 elections, there is a risk of a protracted House speaker leadership battle and standoff, similar to what occurred in 2023. Representatives like Jamie Raskin emphasize the need for caution and preparation to address any challenges that may arise.
Meetings and research are ongoing in the House Committee on Administration’s offices to address potential challenges and ensure that the chaos of previous years is not repeated. Democrats on the committee are working to anticipate various scenarios and take steps to mitigate risks associated with the Electoral College certification process. While uncertainties remain regarding the specific procedures to be followed on Jan. 6, 2025, efforts are being made to safeguard the integrity of the process and uphold the constitutional mandate.
