President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump’s early polling advantage, with the two candidates now virtually tied in a new survey by The New York Times and Siena College. Mr. Biden’s improved standing among traditional Democratic voters and increased support from those who backed him in 2020 have contributed to this shift, with 89 percent of his 2020 supporters now backing him compared to 94 percent for Mr. Trump. Both campaigns are gearing up for a tight 2024 contest, mirroring the close results of the last two presidential elections, which were won by narrow margins in a few battleground states. The shrinking gap between the candidates highlights the importance of even the slightest shifts in support in a nation so evenly divided.
Despite the narrowing of the poll results, many fundamental aspects of the race remain largely unchanged. A high percentage of voters, 64 percent, believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, while nearly 80 percent rate the economic conditions as fair or poor. Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump continue to face challenges with their popularity, with most voters seeing Mr. Biden as too old and a majority believing that Mr. Trump has committed serious federal crimes. Many voters, such as independent voter Beth Prevost, are feeling indifferent about the rematch, with some considering Mr. Biden as the “lesser of the two evils” due to personal characteristics and policy considerations.
The survey indicates a potential shift in support among various voter groups, with Mr. Biden gaining ground among Black and Latino voters and among women in suburban areas. However, he still faces challenges with some demographics, particularly younger voters who continue to view the economy poorly. Despite Mr. Trump’s legal troubles, only a quarter of voters are closely following his criminal trial. The economy and immigration policies stand out as key areas where Mr. Trump holds an advantage over Mr. Biden, with voters giving the former president higher approval ratings on handling these issues. Concerns about rising crime and immigration may be swaying some voters back towards Mr. Trump as the “lesser of the evils.”
Age remains a significant factor in voter perceptions of the candidates, with many viewing Mr. Biden as too old to be an effective president. However, there has been a notable shift among voters over 65, with fewer now seeing Mr. Biden as too old compared to previous months. Mr. Trump, who would also be one of the oldest presidents if elected, does not face the same level of concerns about his age. The candidates also differ in their handling of foreign conflicts, with Mr. Trump receiving higher marks in this area from voters in the survey. Voter opinions on democracy, leadership, and the risks associated with each candidate, further illustrate the divisions among the electorate.
The looming criminal trial against Mr. Trump may have implications for the upcoming election, with a majority of voters viewing the charges against him as serious. Despite this, opinions on the severity of the charges vary along gender lines, with women more likely to see them as very serious compared to men. Voter attitudes towards both candidates continue to be mixed with equal shares of the electorate labeling them as “risky choices” for the country. The potential presence of third-party candidates and voter dissatisfaction with the current choices add further complexity to the political landscape leading up to the election. The poll highlights the evolving dynamics of the race and the various factors influencing voter perceptions of the candidates.
