The term “breakout” is often incorrectly used when referring to a player’s performance in sport. The breakout being referred to is often an increase in opportunity, such as game time and actions on the ball, rather than an abrupt improvement in an athlete’s capabilities. For instance, the basketball player Tyrese Maxey improved last season not due to an inherent improvement in his abilities, but because his team’s roster allowed him more time on the ball and participation in the game. Making predictions regarding a breakout season for a player can be challenging due to a myriad of influencing factors such as injury, dips in form and misguided perceptions.
Last season’s Most Improved Player, Tyrese Maxey, provides an example of an opportunity-based breakout. His standout performance came not from a significant change in skill level, but from an increase in his role on the Philadelphia 76ers following James Harden’s departure. The shift allowed Maxey to have more on-ball time and increase his scoring rate, denoting a breakout performance.
Predicting a breakout season can be complex and risky. Various factors, such as injury or inconsistent form, can quickly derail what seemed like a promising trajectory. Reflecting on past seasons’ predictions reveals the unpredictability of breakout performances. For example, out of the 13 players who stood out last season, only Maxey was a predicted breakout. However, he also erroneously predicted a breakout season for players like LaMelo Ball and Mikal Bridges.
Despite the unpredictable nature of breakouts, this article dares to present an 11-man breakout team for the 2024-25 season. The team includes Anthony Davis, Dyson Daniels, Zion Williamson, Amen Thompson, Josh Giddey, Ziaire Williams, RJ Barrett, Tre Mann, Julian Strawther, Cam Thomas, and Norman Powell. These players, some already established stars, have diverse roles and are at varying stages in their careers.
RJ Barrett is one player on the list who showed signs of improvement last season with the New York Knicks and improved even more after being traded to the Toronto Raptors. In 32 games as a Raptor, Barrett averaged 21.4 points per game and shot 60.5 percent on 2s – a testament to his refined game. Another example is Cam Thomas, predicted not necessarily as a significant breakout but due to increased game time and shot volume.
Ultimately, the term “breakout” needs to be more accurately used in conversations about player performance. It’s not about a sudden impressive performance but about a shift in opportunity—more game time and more plays—that allows underutilized skill to shine. The proposed 11-man breakout team for the 2024-25 season may stand the test of time or may reflect the inherent unpredictability in predicting breakout athletes. Players like RJ Barrett, Cam Thomas and Anthony Davis certainly offer strong potential, but as history shows, time will certainly tell.
